6 MLB Parks With the Largest Average Runs per Game
Thankfully, the days of cookie-cutter, multi-purpose, concrete-doughnut stadium ballparks in baseball are long behind us. If you were an MLB fan in the 1970s and 80s, you know what I’m talking about.
Those artificial turf monstrosities have been replaced by baseball-specific stadiums that all vary from each other when it comes to dimensions, wind conditions and backdrops.
Every park is unique, and the way baseball is played in those parks differs greatly as well. Knowing whether a stadium routinely features high-scoring or low-scoring games can be a real advantage in baseball betting, especially when it comes to Over/Under.
With that said, here’s a list of the 6 MLB ballparks that have averaged the most runs per game, so far in 2017 (stats current as of May 17.)
Miller Park (11.3 runs per game)
The home of the Milwaukee Brewers ranks second on ParkFactors.com’s list of most hitter-friendly parks since 2010, and it’s living up to that standard once again this season.
The top home run hitting team in baseball, Milwaukee, has been inflicting most of its damage in its own yard. The Brewers are averaging 5.91 runs per game at home, where they have also clubbed 36 of their 65 home runs on the season. When Milwaukee goes out on the road, its offense is averaging nearly 1.5 runs less per game.
As much as Miller Park is benefiting the home side, opponents are hitting Brewers pitching even better when they play in Milwaukee. Brewers hurlers are giving up 5.39 runs per game in their own park, compared to 3.71 in other stadiums.
Oddsmakers don’t seem to have caught on to the high-scoring trend this year at Miller Park. The highest total they’ve set for Milwaukee home games has been 9.5 runs, and 17 of the first 23 games at Miller Park have gone Over the total.
Yankee Stadium (11.1 runs per game)
Yankee Stadium is the only American League park to make this list, but the home of the Bronx Bombers makes it in style. It’s the only other park in baseball that is averaging more than 11 runs per contest so far in 2017.
A big reason is the home run ball. Yankee Stadium has allowed an incredible 3.32 long balls per game this season, easily the most in baseball. Ever since the stadium opened in 2009, it’s been among the league leaders in home runs allowed.
New York hitters are taking full advantage, averaging an MLB-high 6.47 runs per game when playing in their own digs. As a team, they’re hitting .280 at home, 17 points higher than when they’re on the road, and boast an impressive .870 OPS.
Yankees pitchers have actually done a decent job limiting opponents at games in the Bronx, holding the opposition to a .242 batting average. But they’ve still allowed 26 home runs in their 19 home games, a big reason why New York hurlers are allowing 1.04 more runs at home than on the road.
Again, oddsmakers don’t seem aware or concerned about the offensive numbers at Yankee Stadium. All but 4 of New York’s first 19 home games have had a total of under 9 runs, and 13 of those 19 games went Over.
Coors Field (10.82 runs per game)
No surprises here. Balls have always flown out of Denver because of the mile-high altitude, making Coors Field by far the most hitter-friendly park in baseball since 2010.
Storing balls in a humidor has decreased the absurd home run rate at Coors, but scoring is still high because there’s so much space in the outfield. With the fence 415 feet away in center and roughly 350 feet down the lines, fielders play deeper and a lot of would-be fly balls drop in for base hits.
The Rockies are averaging 5.43 runs per game at home, up from their 4.06 average on the road. However, it’s the opposition that is enjoying Coors Field the most, scoring nearly 2 more runs per game off Rockies pitching in Colorado than anywhere else (5.39 in Coors, 3.47 at other parks).
Unfortunately, you’re not outsmarting anyone by blindly betting Overs in Colorado. Sportsbooks are way ahead of you on this, routinely listing totals in double digits (and as high as 12.5 already this season). So even though there have been nearly 11 runs per game scored this year in Denver, the Rockies have actually gone Under in 13 of their 23 home contests.
Citizens Bank Park (10.75 runs per game)
The Phillies hardly boast an explosive offense. Philadelphia is in the middle of the pack this year in batting average and runs per game, and ranks 23rd in baseball in home runs.
But put them in their home park, and that offense comes alive. The Phils are averaging 5.38 runs per game at Citizens Bank Park, approximately 35 percent more than they average on the road. Philly’s team batting average is nearly 40 points higher when at home, and its slugging percentage is 80 points higher.
Opponents also hit better at Citizens Bank, though not to the same extreme. Philly pitchers are really bad regardless of where they pitch, allowing 5.38 runs per game at home and 4.5 on the road.
These early-season averages can be a bit inflated by a few very high-scoring games, and that may be the case here. Of Philadelphia’s 16 home games so far, one featured 20 runs, one saw 19 and another had 17. That would explain why the Phillies have only gone Over in 8 of those 16 home games.
Chase Field (10.29 runs per game)
The Diamondbacks have one of the most extreme home/away dichotomies in baseball. Through 41 games, they’ve got a .680 winning percentage at home, but are playing just .375 ball on the road.
That home/away discrepancy is even bigger when it comes to Arizona’s Over/Under numbers. The Diamondbacks have gone Under the total in just 8 of their first 25 home games, but have gone Over only 4 times in 16 games at other parks.
The big reason is offense. Other than the Yankees, Arizona is the only team in baseball averaging more than 6 runs per game at home. However, when the Diamondbacks hit the highway, their offense dries up like the Arizona desert, scoring an MLB-worst 3.06 runs per outing.
With Arizona pitchers’ numbers basically the same at home versus on the road, that’s really the only reason Arizona home games have been so high scoring. Diamondbacks hurlers are giving up 4.16 runs per game at Chase Field, a slight uptick from the 4 runs they average against on the road.
If these trends continue, you might be able to find some better value betting the Diamondbacks Over their team total at home, rather than simply taking the full game Over.
SunTrust Park (10.23 runs per game)
The only other ballpark in baseball averaging more than 10 runs per game in 2017 happens to be the newest one. SunTrust Park, which opened this year as the new home of the Atlanta Braves, is proving to be a lot more hitter-friendly than Turner Field was.
Unfortunately for the Braves, it’s their opponents that are enjoying SunTrust the most. Atlanta hurlers have been knocked around for 6.23 runs per game when pitching off their home mound, the most in baseball. But when the Braves go on the road, their staff gives up a much more respectable 4.7 runs per outing. Meanwhile, the Atlanta offense is actually averaging fewer runs per game at home (4.31) than when the team is the visitor (4.78).
Turner Field was known as a pitcher’s park, allowing 5 percent fewer runs than the average yard since 2010. SunTrust was built to be more balanced, with the fence in the right-field power alley 375 feet away instead of the 390 feet it was to right-center at Turner Field.
The Over is 8-5 in Atlanta’s home games so far this year, but the Braves have also gone Over in 14 of 23 on the road. The jury is still out on how hitter-friendly SunTrust Park will be, and we’ll know more about how well the ball flies when the Georgia heat arrives later this summer.