2023-24 NBA Win Total Predictions and Betting Picks

NBA, Wins, Totals

Picking the best NBA win total bets for any season is hard, and 2023-24 won’t be an exception. You never know which teams will perform better or worse than expected, but getting them right could be very profitable.

That’s why I share my top picks for the NBA over/under regular wins market in this article. I like the lines for five teams, so let’s jump right into it.

Denver Nuggets — Over 56.5 Wins

  • Over 56.5 Wins; +190
  • Under 56.5 Wins; -260

The reigning NBA champions will try to run it back and win consecutive titles. The expectation is that Denver will win a lot of games again during the regular season and earn another playoff bid. The Nuggets won 53 games during the 2022-23 regular season

The good news for Denver is that the roster will remain largely intact from last season. Bruce Brown and Jeff Green were the only two contributors who departed from the team. Denver still retains Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and two-time MVP Nikola Jokic.

Jokic and Murray are in the prime of their careers and have incredible chemistry together. Both players averaged over 20 points and 6 assists per game in 2022-23. The Serbian star also finished runner-up in the MVP voting.

I can almost guarantee that the Nuggets will be among the most competitive teams in the NBA once again. Denver was incredibly dynamic in 2022-23, I don’t expect much to change. This team could easily win 60 games because of the combination of quality, depth, and chemistry.

The odds of +190 for over 56.5 victories make this one of the best NBA win total bets for 2023-24.

My Pick:
Denver Nuggets Over 56.5 Wins

Washington Wizards — Over 27.5 wins

  • Under 27.5 Wins; -250
  • Over 27.5 Wins; +185

Things are looking bleak in Washington after the team traded Bradley Beal to the Suns. There are some serious and obvious deficiencies on the roster. Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole appear to be the only bright spots for the team right now.

Washington also parted ways with Kristaps Porzingis, who was a difference-maker on offense last season. That means Kuzma and Poole will have to do all the heavy lifting in 2022-23. Elevating the rest of the roster won’t be easy for either of them.

With all that being said, I think Washington can exceed expectations. This team has plenty of young players who could develop into key contributors. The overall lack of experience isn’t ideal, but the Wizards have two offensive weapons in Poole and Kuzma.

Was it a mistake that Washington traded Rui Hachimura to Los Angeles? Yes, but the Wizards are still in decent shape moving forward. When it comes to NBA win totals in 2023-24, I think the team can deliver somewhere around 30 victories.

Many people expect the Wizards to tank, but as it stands, there are no big prospects coming next year. The 2024 draft class looks weak, so Washington should try to build a winning mentality instead.

My Pick:
Washington Wizards Over 27.5 Wins

San Antonio Spurs — Over 32.5 Wins

  • Over 32.5 Wins; +205
  • Under 32.5 Wins; -280

Everyone will focus on the Spurs this season after the team selected Victor Wembanyama in the 2023 NBA Draft. Wemby is the most highly touted prospect to enter the NBA since LeBron James. He stands at 7-foot-4 and has incredible athleticism for a player of his size.

Wemby provides a huge boost to a team that was extremely lackluster in 2022-23. San Antonio only won 22 wins, which was tied for second-worst in the NBA. Furthermore, there’s still work that needs to be done in terms of fixing the roster.

It also doesn’t help that San Antonio plays in the Western Conference. There are star players on virtually every team, and the Spurs will likely struggle to keep up. The roster is also very young, and it’ll take time for the team to figure things out.

And yet, what we’ve seen so far from Wemby has been insane. The guy has been exceptional in pre-season on both ends of the floor.

Looking back at the previous campaign, the French big man posted 21.6 points and 10.4 rebounds per game en route to becoming MVP of the LNB Pro A last season. Wemby also plays the center position like a point guard, which is pretty remarkable.

He looks ready to compete from day 1, so I expect the Spurs to overperform in Wembanyama’s maiden.

My Pick:
San Antonio Spurs Over 32.5 Wins

Boston Celtics — Under 57.5 Wins

  • Over 57.5 Wins; +170
  • Under 57.5 Wins; -230

The Celtics were very active during the offseason and made several changes to the roster. With multiple players departing and joining the team, Boston will look a lot different on both ends of the court from the team that finished second in the Eastern Conference last season.

The biggest acquisition was Kristaps Porzingis, who provides a huge boost to the offense. Jrue Holiday also joins Boston after posting 19.3 points per game in 2022-23. These two additions provide a new dynamic for Boston as the team tries to contend for a title.

Can the roster changes in Boston propel the team to more than 57 wins this season? I think it’ll be difficult for any team in the Eastern Conference to win more than 50 games. Boston has a lot of talented players, but Milwaukee and Philadelphia are up there, Miami will be tricky, and other teams should improve too.

I think Boston will win a lot of games in 2023-24, but going above 57 victories would be very hard for the Celtics.

My Pick:
Boston Celtics Under 57.5 Wins

Atlanta Hawks — Under 45.5 Wins

  • Over 45.5 Wins; +170
  • Under 45.5 Wins; -230

The Hawks are a good team, but the NBA win total line for the upcoming season looks wrong to me. The team was part of the Play-Ins last year and even reached the playoffs, before losing to Boston in the first round.

The bookies are projecting that Atlanta will be just marginally better than last year. I expect them to win against mediocre teams and remain relevant throughout the season. However, Atlanta lacks the killer instinct that they need to contend for more than just a play-in spot.

Trae Young will have to galvanize the roster and make everyone around him better. He’s one of the NBA’s most talented playmakers, having averaged 26.2 points and 10.4 assists per game in 2022-23. The offense will run through Young again, who’s an excellent facilitator.

The other core players in Atlanta include Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter, and Dejounte Murray. All three scored 12 or more points per game in 2022-23 for Atlanta. The roster also has a few really good role players, including Saddiq Bey and Patty Mills.

The lack of a clear second star is the biggest issue here, on top of Trae Young’s poor defense. These two problems remain unresolved, so I don’t expect major changes.

Ultimately, I think the results in Atlanta for the new season will be similar to 2022-23. The roster looks a little better, but there’s still a lot of work to do. Atlanta with under 45 wins is my NBA win total prediction for 2023-24.

My Pick:
Atlanta Hawks Under 45.5 Wins

More NBA Blogs for 2023-24

I also wrote about other NBA futures and shared my predictions for the 2023-24 season. Make sure that you check out our content and use the information to your advantage when you bet on the NBA!