How to Calculate the Odds of Gambling Losing Streaks

By Petko Stoyanov Published: Mar 24, 2021, Updated: Jan 05, 2024

Have you ever wondered what your odds are of losing three consecutive blackjack hands? Have you ever considered how often you’ll suffer through four straight losing baccarat bets?

If you’ve pondered these types of questions before, then you can clear them up by learning how to calculate gambling losing streaks. This math may seem like a mystery at first, but it’s actually pretty simple to do.

The following guide discusses how you can calculate the odds of various gambling losing streaks no matter the game. It also covers why this information is useful.

Easy Method for Determining the Chances of Losing Streaks

Teachers don’t cover betting losing streaks in school. Therefore, this subject isn’t exactly common knowledge.

As a result, anyone can feel lost when it comes to calculating how long a losing streak will last. As you’ll see below, though, this info can be figured out in a few simple steps.

Learn the Chances of Losing

The first thing that you must know regarding losing streaks is what the chances are of losing a given bet. These probabilities vary greatly depending upon the individual wager.

Here are some examples of different wagers and their chances of losing:

American Roulette Red/Black – 52.63%
Baccarat Banker Hand – 49.32% (not counting ties)
Baccarat Player Hand – 50.68% (not counting ties)
Blackjack Hand – 53.64% (not counting ties)
Craps Pass Line – 51.71%
Craps Don’t Pass Line – 50.71% (counts pushes on 12)
Craps Buy Bet on 4 or 10 – 66.67%
European Roulette Red/black – 51.35%
Sic Bo “Big” – 51.39%
Sic Bo “Small” – 51.39%

Know What to Multiply

Once you know the probability of losing a bet, you multiply this figure by itself. The number of times you multiply the percentage by itself depends upon the proposed streak’s length.

Here’s an example:

You want to know the probability of losing a baccarat player bet four times in a row.
A baccarat banker hand is listed at 49.32%, which is 0.4932.
4932 ^ 4 = 0.05917
Your chances of losing four straight player bets are 5.92%.

You can use the Big Number Calculator at Calculator.net to figure everything out. Alternatively, you can also just enter the percentage over and over in a regular calculator. In the example above, you’d multiply: 0.4932 x 0.4932 x 0.4932 x 0.4932.

Convert the Percentage to Odds

You may be perfectly fine with ending on a percentage regarding gambling losing streaks. Assuming you want to take things further and determine the odds, though, then you’ll need to make an odds conversion.

In the previous example, you arrived at a 5.92% chance of losing four consecutive wagers. You could make an assumption that this event happens roughly 1 in 20 times.

To get a more-precise figure, though, you convert the percentage to odds. Plenty of tools across the web allow you to do this.

After finding a calculator that lets you convert odds to percentages, you can begin entering the relevant information. Here’s an example on what to input with the baccarat example:

You want to convert 5.92% to odds.
You input 5.92 in the percentage field (some calculators may require 0.0592).
This percentage converts to 15.89:1 odds.

Again, you don’t really have to convert percentages to odds. But various online tools can help you make this conversion when necessary.

As for the 15:89:1 odds, this figure means that the losing streak will only happen 1 in 16.89 times (15.89 + 1 = 16.89).

Examples of Calculating Losing Streaks With Different Games

Once you know the steps covered above, you’re ready to begin calculating the odds of various losing streaks. However, you might want more examples on the matter. Here are different examples on losing streaks involving different casino games and bets.

What are the odds of losing 10 straight blackjack hands?

The probability of losing a blackjack hand is 53.64%.
5364 ^ 10 = 0.00197
The probability of losing 10 straight blackjack hands is 0.197%.
506:1 odds

What are the odds of losing 15 consecutive European Roulette spins?

The probability of losing a European Roulette even-money bet is 51.35%.
5135 ^ 15 = 0.00004551
The probability of losing 15 straight roulette wagers is 0.004551%.
21,972:1 odds

What are the odds of losing five craps pass line bets in a row?

The probability of losing a craps pass line wager is 50.71%.
5071 ^ 5 = 0.0335
The probability of losing five straight craps pass line bets is 3.35%.
29:1 odds

What are the odds of losing 20 baccarat banker bets in a row?

The probability of losing a baccarat banker wager is 49.32%.
4932 ^ 20 = 0.000000725
The probability of losing 20 straight banker bets is 0.000072%.
1,388,887:1 odds

Why Is Knowing the Odds of Losing Streaks Important?

You may find that knowing how to calculate betting losing streaks to be helpful for one or more reasons. Here are a few instances where you’ll benefit from such knowledge.

Determine the Chances of Losing Everything

Risk of ruin is an important concept in gambling. It determines the chances of losing your entire bankroll and having to start over.

With that said, you’ll do well to know your risk of ruin in any gambling situation. Learning how many consecutive losses you need to suffer before losing your bankroll helps in this matter.

Here’s an example to illustrate this point:

You have a $200 bankroll.
You’re playing American Roulette and making $20 even-money wagers.
200 / 20 = 10 straight bets would take your bankroll
You want to know the chances of running into such a losing streak.
An even-money bet has a 52.63% probability of losing in this game.
5263 ^ 10 = 0.00163
You have a 0.163% probability of losing 10 consecutive wagers and your $200 bankroll.
612:1 odds

Assuming you do lose your bankroll, it’ll probably happen in a slower and more drawn-out manner. Nevertheless, you’ll appreciate knowing how long it will take to lose everything under extreme examples.

Handy When Using Betting Systems

Some betting systems require increasing wagers after losses. These betting strategies are known as negative progression systems.

Some of these systems force you to take on more risk than others. They can quickly drain your entire bankroll during a losing streak.

The Martingale betting system, for example, requires you to double bets after any loss. The Grand Martingale goes even further by calling on you to add an extra unit along with doubling wagers.

Here are examples of using these systems with $500 while placing European Roulette even-money bets:

Martingale (double bets after losses)

Bet $5 and lose; losses at $5 – 51.35% chance of happening.
Bet $10 and lose; losses at $15 – 26.37% chance of happening.
Bet $20 and lose; losses at $35 – 13.5% chance of happening.
Bet $40 and lose; losses at $75 – 7.0% chance of happening.
Bet $80 and lose; losses at $155 – 3.6% chance of happening.
Bet $160 and lose; losses at $315 – 1.83% chance of happening.
The next bet would be $320; you only have $185 remaining.

Grand Martingale (double bets and add 1 unit after losses)

Bet $5 and lose; losses at $5 – 51.35% chance of happening.
Bet $15 and lose; losses at $20 – 26.37% chance of happening.
Bet $35 and lose; losses at $55 – 13.5% chance of happening.
Bet $75 and lose; losses at $120 – 7.0% chance of happening.
Bet $155 and lose; losses at $275 – 3.6% chance of happening.
The next bet would be $315; you only have $225 remaining.

Satisfy Your Curiosity

You may not have an elaborate plan that requires information on losing streaks. Instead, you might just be interested in knowing the chances of hitting each streak.

The most common question I see floated is the odds of losing 10 blackjack hands in a row. The next most common question revolves around the odds on losing 10 roulette spins.

By knowing how to do the math, though, you don’t just have to rely on somebody else’s answer to a single losing streak. Instead, you can run the calculations on any type of gambling losing streak with this knowledge.

Conclusion

You certainly don’t want to run into any massive losing streaks that can take your bankroll in an instant. Nevertheless, you should at least know the chances and odds of such events happening.

The odds of losing 10 rounds in baccarat or craps, for example, may not be as long as you’d think. You’ll want to prepare, both mentally and financially, for times when luck doesn’t go your way.

Of course, you can just as easily go on 10-round winning streaks, too. These are the types of events that balance everything out and make up for the excruciating losing streaks.