World Chess Championship 2023 Betting Odds and Predictions

World Chess, Knights, Rook, Castle

It’s time for a new chess king, and the World Chess Championship 2023 is the place where he will be decided! Magnus Carlsen won’t defend his title, and someone else will take the throne for the first time in over a decade.

Carlsen has been the world champion since 2013 after defeating Viswanathan Anand and successfully defending his world title four times. The Norwegian grandmaster stepped down this time around, so it’s time for Ding Liren and Ian Nepomniachtchi to determine the next champ.

I provide my 2023 World Chess Championship prediction in this article after analyzing the latest betting odds and the two contenders for the title.

World Chess Championship 2023 – Format and Key Details

The incumbent champion, Magnus Carlsen abdicated his crown. He previously claimed that he lost motivation and stated that he doesn’t “have a lot to gain” by winning another title.

As a result, the top two players from last year’s Contender’s Tournament: Ian Nepomniachtchi and Ding Liren, will be fighting for the championship. The two grandmasters are virtually neck and neck in terms of skill level.

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The format of the championship match will consist of 14 games of classic chess. Time control for each game is 120 minutes for 40 moves, then 60 minutes for the next 20 moves. For the remaining 15 minutes, players have 30-second increments per move starting at move 61.

The format in 2023 follows the same as that from 2021. If there’s a tiebreaker, the winner is decided by a series of consecutive games. The championship will take place between April 7-30 in Astana, Kazakhstan. The prize fund is worth $2 million, with 60% going to the winner.

The championship will also follow traditional scoring rules. A victory earns each player a single point that goes toward their collective score for the match. A draw brings 0.5 points to both players. The first grandmaster to reach 7.5 total points wins.

World Chess Championship 2023 Betting Odds

  • Ian Nepomniachtchi; 1.80
  • Ding Liren; 2.05

Nepomniachtchi is a slight favorite in the 2023 World Chess Championship betting odds. He’s the highest-rated player in Russia, competing in consecutive world championships after losing to Carlsen in 2021.

It will be challenging against Ding Liren, though. The Chinese grandmaster has beaten his opponent many times in the past, so he knows the title is within his reach.

Will Nepomniachtchi Get Lucky the Second Time Around?

Many people will choose Nepomniachtchi with their predictions for the World Chess Championship. Aside from Carlsen, he represents the gold standard in professional chess.

Nepomniachtchi won the Candidates in 2022 with the highest score in tournament history. He simply looks unstoppable at the moment. The Russian player also has the best potential to become a world champion out of any other grandmaster aside from Carlsen.

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Losing the world championship in 2021 was devastating for Nepomniachtchi. The first five games resulted in a draw before Carlsen completely took over the match. Now, the Russian grandmaster has a chance at redemption against a much more beatable opponent.

A quick look at the h2h stats between the two players shows that Nepomniachtchi hasn’t lost against Liren in their last four clashes. This will give the Russian plenty of confidence for the World Championship.

Liren - Consistency the Key

Liren’s incredible consistency has now gotten him to the World Championship. His dramatic performance at the Candidates in 2022 is also a big reason he will compete in the world title match. The Chinese grandmaster defeated Hikaru Nakamura in the last round to finish in second place.

Competitively speaking, Liren is right up there with Nepomniachtchi. In 13 head-to-head classic chess games, Liren has won twice, with eight games ending in a draw. The Chinese challenger is almost evenly matched with the Russian grandmaster.

It’s also important to consider his clutch performances when betting on the World Chess Championship 2023. Liren won four of his six final matches at the 2022 Candidates to qualify for the championship match.

2023 World Chess Championship Prediction and Betting Pick

These are two excellent chase players, and the match will be extremely close. There will be many draws, with both players avoiding major mistakes. The next champion will be the player who can effectively limit their blunders.

Nepomniachtchi has been playing well as of late and looks a little bit better than Liren. His record-setting score at the 2022 Candidates Tournament was impressive. The Russian grandmaster also has a slight edge in the head-to-head series against Liren.

If you consider all these little things, Nepomniachtchi is the reasonable World Chess Championship prediction. The savvy Russian doesn’t have to face Magnus Carlsen – the only player in the world who’s better than him.

It’s finally his time to lift the illustrious trophy and the price of 1.80 available at most top betting sites is decent enough to back him.

My Pick:
Ian Nepomniachtchi