Super Cup 2023 Odds and Pick: Man City vs. Sevilla

The UEFA Super Cup 2023 betting odds show us a clear favorite – Manchester City! The Champions League winners were unstoppable last season, but I’m not sure the bookies got this one right. I explain why in my analysis of the upcoming final.

Will Man City continue its dominance after last year’s treble? Can Sevilla find a way to win against the best team in the world? Let’s dive into the odds and both sides before I share my UEFA Super Cup 2023 prediction and betting pick.

• Head Coach: Pep Guardiola
• Key Player: Erling Haaland
• 2022-23 Premier League Record: 28-5-5

The historic treble that Man City won in 2022-23 is still fresh in everyone’s minds. It was an incredible season that finally brought Pep Guardiola another Champions League. Man City also landed a few notable transfers during the summer, including Josko Gvardiol and Mateo Kovacic, so the club is ready for more of the same.

Man City won the treble because Guardiola finally abandoned the false 9 approach and got Erling Haaland, a true striker. In his first season playing in the Premier League, the Norwegian lifted three trophies and scored 52 goals. Haaland also delivered the greatest individual goal-scoring campaign of all time.

In terms of Man City’s head-to-head record against Sevilla, there’s no question which team is superior. Man City has won all four matches, scoring 12 goals collectively in those fixtures. An average of 3.75 goals were scored per match between the two teams.

What concerns me is the recent fitness struggles from Kevin De Bruyne, which could hamper Man City. He was noticeably limping in the Champions League final because of a hamstring tear. De Bruyne says he’s ahead of schedule in his recovery, but he’s still not 100%, probably the reason he didn’t start against Arsenal in the Community Shield.

The entire team is also behind schedule because of their deep runs in multiple competitions last year. It delayed their summer vacations, which gave the team less time to prepare. Now, Man City will have to play catch-up and devote their attention to Sevilla.

The team looked somewhat rusty in the recent loss in the Community Shield against Arsenal, but that’s hardly a surprise. This is now Man City’s third loss in a row in the Community Shield, so Pep clearly favors proper preparations for the new season over this trophy.

The team is definitely a favorite in the upcoming clash, but it won’t be as easy as the odds suggest at this point of the season.

• Head Coach: Jose Mendilibar
• Key Player: Jesus Navas
• 2022-23 La Liga Record: 13-15-10

In 2022-23, Sevilla defied the odds and exceeded expectations. They won their seventh Europa League title, which is the most ever by a single soccer club. Sevilla has now collected four Europa League titles in the last nine years.

Sevilla has also previously won the Super Cup title, although it’s been since 2006. They defeated Barcelona in the final match by a score of 3-0. Sevilla lost all other five Super Cups, including against Bayern Munich in 2020.

Unfortunately, Sevilla’s performance in La Liga last season won’t inspire confidence in bettors. They won just 13 games in the league and finished 12th in the final standings.

Despite the inconsistencies in 2022-23, Sevilla played with discipline and purpose during knockout tournaments. This should bode well for them against a difficult team like Man City. Sevilla tends to bring their best when there’s a lot on the line.

The Spanish side’s tactical flexibility and solid defense won them the Europa League title in 2023. They showed a lot of resilience and didn’t back down during the tournament. Sevilla was also effective at counter-attacks, so they can hurt City.

I expect Sevilla to bring a lot of energy and show their toughness against Man City. They were able to salvage an abysmal season by winning the Europa League in 2022-23. That alone should give them plenty of confidence entering the Super Cup final.

The best soccer betting sites don’t expect Sevilla to win this one. However, the team is fairly good and can compete with Man City. Who’s to say that Sevilla can’t defy the odds once again?

Sevilla is a resilient team, and they play their best soccer in the biggest moments. The problem, however, is that Man City is far superior in terms of talent and tactical prowess. There’s a huge difference in skill level, which is why I think Man City will win the Super Cup final.

Unfortunately, picking Man City to win doesn’t offer you the best price. That’s why I recommend going for the over. The games between these two clubs usually produce goals, and I expect more of the same.

I’m choosing the over with my UEFA Super Cup betting pick because the odds of -110 are excellent.