Predictions and Betting Odds on Trump’s Indictment

Donald Trump, America, Jail time, Politics

Donald Trump, the former President of the United States, has officially been indicted! This is unfamiliar political territory for Americans because high-level politicians usually get away with a lot.

What will happen this time around? I explore the latest betting odds on Trump’s indictment and jail time, before sharing my predictions in this post. Will Trump serve any time in jail? Will he cut a plea deal with the prosecution? Let’s dive into the latest Trump indictment props.

Will Trump Serve Jail Time Before 2026?

  • No; -1500
  • Yes; +600

When betting on the Donald Trump indictment, you have to consider whether he’ll actually serve time in jail. The former president has been charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records. The penalty, if convicted, would be massive.

Naturally, the prosecution must prove that Trump is guilty to a jury and judge. That means they have to produce a lot of evidence and rely on the facts to make their case. The main allegation against him is that a $130,000 payment he made was a campaign finance violation.

The indictment against Trump is unprecedented and could backfire politically. Putting him behind bars also damages the credibility of his opponents and makes him more popular. I think it’s highly unlikely that the former president ends up in prison before and the Trump jail odds confirm that.


Will Trump Cut a Plea Deal with State/Federal Prosecutors?

  • No; -500
  • Yes; +300

The Trump indictment betting odds suggest the former president likely won’t take a plea deal. He has maintained his innocence throughout the whole ordeal. Trump’s attorney also said there’s “zero” chance that the former president would accept any plea deal.

Trump’s legal team maintains that no crime took place. The former president also surrendered himself to New York authorities at his arraignment. Trump’s attorney has even indicated that the former president is ready to face everything head-on.

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Again, the case centers on a $130,000 payment that Trump made to Stormy Daniels back in 2016. Daniels claims that she and Trump had sexual contact with each other in 2006. Trump has denied any involvement with Daniels, although he classified the payout as a legal expense.

I think a lot of people are worried that the charges against Trump are a misplacement of justice. A panel of Democrat voters recently revealed the political fallout could be severe. The indictment might also open Pandora’s box of legal consequences for other politicians.

I don’t expect Trump to accept a plea deal. He’s too prideful to admit that he committed a crime. The case against the former president isn’t a slam dunk, either. Trump is ultimately better off fighting the charges and maintaining his innocence.


Will Trump Move to Russia Before 2025?

  • No; -2000
  • Yes; +700

Another one of the more popular Donald Trump prop bets is whether he’ll move to Russia. Personally, I think it’s absurd for people to believe that he would emigrate permanently. He’s already submitted himself to the authorities in New York following his indictment.

Think about it from a logistical perspective. If Trump moves to Russia, what can he do? He won’t be able to go into politics. Furthermore, the Trump Organization and its business interests are based in the United States.

Trump fleeing the United States sounds like the premise of a hacky political thriller novel. It’s just not going to happen, and any theory to that effect is pure conjecture. If you’re cynical about Trump, that’s fine, but the reality is that he’s not leaving the country.

The odds are short, but such a move is almost impossible.


Total States/Feds to Indict Before Next Election

  • More Than 2.5; -140
  • Less Than 2.5; +100

Here’s the real question: are there other prosecutors bold enough to follow in the steps of Alvin Bragg? We’re talking about Donald Trump, the man who’s made a lot of political enemies. Many believe it’s only a matter of time before more jurisdictions get involved.

Let’s look at the indictment in terms of the bigger picture. Trump has already announced his intention to run for president in 2024. The charges against him are also serious in nature and could affect his candidacy moving forward.

Can Trump still run for president even while he’s indicted? The answer is yes, and he could be elected once again. The Constitution doesn’t mention any absence of a criminal record as a qualification for the presidency. In other words, convicted criminals can technically be elected.

More jurisdictions will likely try to charge Trump at some point, especially if New York can’t convict him. I think it’s only a matter of time before other states and federal agencies get involved. Remember, the ruling class doesn’t want this guy in office.

My Pick:
More Than 2.5

Will Trump Tweet During 2023?

  • Yes; -150
  • No; +110

The best political betting sites also offer markets on Trump potentially tweeting in 2023. As many Americans know, Trump was heavily active on Twitter during his presidency. However, he hasn’t tweeted since January 8 of, 2021 due to his suspension and the creation of Truth Social.

Trump used his Twitter account to communicate more directly with his base during his time as president. The strategy was pretty effective, although his social media usage would drive his advisors crazy. His plan was to go around and sidestep the mainstream press.

The Twitter suspension of Trump was lifted after Elon Musk took over the company. The controversial ban went into effect after the January 6 riots in the U.S. Capitol. Musk also reversed several bans against other suspended accounts.

It’s still unclear if Trump will return to Twitter. When Musk ran a poll about reinstating the former president’s account, Trump responded on Truth Social. He implied that he had no intention of tweeting anytime soon.

Ultimately, I think it’s safe to say that Trump won’t be tweeting in 2023. He’s posted on his Facebook account in recent months, but the former president has yet to return to Twitter. Trump’s Instagram account has also been inactive since being reinstated.