Betting Odds and Predictions for the Palme d’Or 2023

The official lineup for the 2023 Cannes Film Festival has been announced! 19 films have a chance of claiming the prestigious Palme d’Or award. The winner is decided by members of a jury who represent the Cannes’ Official Selection, and unlike the Oscars, these guys genuinely don’t care what the audience thinks. This provides some interesting opportunities.

Bovada has published the 2023 Palme d’Or betting odds, so it’s time for me to analyze them, discuss the top favorites, and share my Palme d’Or 2023 predictions.

Before I dive into my 2023 Palme d’Or prediction, I want to discuss the main favorites. This year, the jury is headed by Ruben Ostlund. He won the Palme d’Or in 2022 for Triangle of Sadness, a movie that also earned him two Oscar nominations.

You should study each filmmaker in terms of their track record at the Cannes Film Festival. This can help clue you in on who’s got the best chance to claim the award. This year, four entrants are also previous winners of the Palme d’Or.

• Director: Jonathan Glazer
• Genre: Historical Drama/Romance

The Zone of Interest is the first movie by Jonathan Glazer to screen at the Cannes Film Festival. The British director is also a veteran filmmaker whose filmography includes Sexy Beast and Under the Skin. He’s worked with notable actors such as Scarlett Johansson and Ben Kingsley.

The movie is loosely based on the novel of the same name. The story follows Nazi officer Angelus Thomsen, who becomes enamored with Hannah Doll. She’s the wife of Paul Doll, the commander of a concentration camp at Auschwitz.

It’s still unknown how loyal an adaptation the movie will present. The source material was critically acclaimed, receiving praise for its dark satirical elements. Glazer will have to balance his own sensibilities with the tone of the original novel.

If he can replicate all the positives of the source material and improve on them with the opportunities that moviemaking presents, The Zone of Interest can win the 2023 Palme d’Or.

• Director: Tran Anh Hung
• Genre: Drama/Romance

The Pot au Feu is a period piece and romantic drama starring Juliette Binoche and Benoit Magimel. The filming took place in a French castle, and the story follows a renowned cook and her relationship with a food connoisseur.

As the film unfolds, the two epicures grow fond of each other over the course of two decades. Their romance also gives rise to many amazingly delicious meals. Although commitment issues threaten the relationship, they work through it.

There’s a lot of buzz surrounding this film because of the imaginative energy and wonder that it promises. The story explores French gastronomy in the late 1800s, and the movie makes use of a diverse cast.

I’m not quite sure I like the odds for this one, though, because I see more promise in The Zone of Interest and a few other candidates.

• Director: Nuri Bilge Ceylan
• Genre: Drama

You also can’t overlook About Dry Grasses when making your Cannes Film Festival predictions. The director is Nuri Bilge Ceylan, a previous winner of the Palme d’Or. He directed Winter Sleep, which took home the top prize at the festival in 2014.

This movie follows a young teacher in Anatolia accused of sexually harassing his students. The main character essentially must learn to survive and navigate an emotional battleground. The film is expected to be an introspective look at human relationships.

I will say that Ceylan’s style isn’t for everyone. His movies tend to be long, and the plot often moves at a snail’s pace. However, he infuses every story with a lot of emotional depth, which always appeals to the jury at Cannes.

On top of that, a deep look at human relationships in the complicated MeToo era is bound to provoke the viewers.

The Cannes Film Festival is notorious for being unpredictable. The truth is you never know which movie is going to capture the Palme d’Or. The jury that selects the winner also tends to be biased against American-made movies.

• Asteroid City (+2000). It’s a film by Wes Anderson – must I say anything else? He’s known for his whimsical style and meticulous attention to detail. He’s never won the Palme d’Or, but he certainly deserves it.
• Monster (+1400). Directed by Japanese filmmaker Hirokazu Kore-eda, the plot of Monster has been kept under wraps. However, word on the street is that this will be one of his best works to date.
• May December (+2000). It’s an American film, so the jury at Cannes won’t view it too favorably. However, director Todd Haynes is a prolific filmmaker known for getting the best performances out of his actors.

I don’t see a clear favorite, and I can’t completely exclude any movie at this point. That makes my prediction tough, but I have an idea.

I’m going to make a bold prediction. The 2023 Palme d’Or betting odds listed Asteroid City as an underdog to claim the prestigious award. An American filmmaker hasn’t won it since 2011, but 2023 feels like the year in which the drought ends.

I think Asteroid City will be a huge hit at the Cannes Film Festival this year. It’s already receiving a ton of Oscar buzz, and Anderson seems to be incapable of making a bad movie. The cast also includes an impressive ensemble of actors.

The odds are too high to ignore under the circumstances, so a small wager on Asteroid City is the most sensible bet.