Betting Odds and Predictions for the Next Pope

Pope, Faith, Buildings, Structures

People will bet anything these days: sports, politics, entertainment, and religion – you name it! Nothing is off limits, including the decision about the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church. Someone else could be taking over the role soon, but who exactly?

The next pope betting odds are available, alongside a few other markets. We know that Pope Francis is considering retirement due to health concerns. The future of the papacy is now in question, and I want to offer my predictions on a potential successor.

Next Pope Odds and Betting Pick

  • Cardinal Luis Tagle; +600
  • Cardinal Marc Ouellet; +600
  • Cardinal Peter Erdo; +700
  • Archbishop Angelo Scola; +800
  • Cardinal Christoph Schonborn; +1000
  • Cardinal Sean O’Malley; +1600
  • Cardinal Gianfranco Ravasi; +2000
  • Cardinal Robert Sarah; +2000
  • Cardinal Timothy Dolan; +2000
  • Cardinal Albert Malcolm Ranjith; +2500

The betting odds on the next pope indicate no definitive replacement. Cardinals Luis Tagle and Marc Ouellet are co-favorites, with Cardinal Peter Erdo in the mix as well. Angelo Scola, the former Archbishop of Milan, is also among the likely candidates.

Ouellet could make history as the first Canadian to be elected to lead the papacy. In 2010, he was appointed as the prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops, replacing Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re. Ouellet also became the Archbishop of Quebec back in 2002.

The Canadian Cardinal has been a top candidate to be the next pope in the past two elections (2005 and 2013). However, his reputation has been marred by allegations of sexual assault. He was initially investigated by the Vatican but was cleared of any wrongdoing by Pope Francis.

Luis Tagle is the other major candidate to become the next pope. The 65-year-old Cardinal is from the Philippines and could become the first Asian pope in history. The Vatican views Tagle in high regard, and he’s never endured a major controversy.

Info Box Icon

He currently serves as the Pro-Prefect for the Section of Evangelization of Dicastery for Evangelization. He was also the Archbishop of Manila from 2011 to 2019. Tagle’s been involved in many important social issues in his native country.

Peter Erdo is also a front-runner in the battle to become the next pope. There’s always been buzz about him taking over the papacy. The Hungarian cleric is extremely well-liked by the College of Cardinals.

Many consider Erdo to be a unifying force within the Vatican. However, his appointment would also represent a deviation from Pope Francis’ worldview. Erdo is a traditionalist who prioritizes the celebration of the Latin Mass.

Tagle is clearly the person here whom Pope Francis favors as his replacement. However, it feels Erdo is the candidate with the strongest support among the people who will make the final decision. The odds for him to get the nod are excellent, so a small wager makes a lot of sense.

My Pick:
Cardinal Peter Erdo

Continent of the Next Pope Odds and Betting Pick

  • Europe; -125
  • North America; +400
  • Asia; +450
  • Africa; +550
  • Central Or South America; +650

This market is perfect if you’re interested in betting on the next pope but prefer a wider choice. The odds are heavily skewed toward a European successor, which isn’t surprising. Catholic candidates outside of Europe are rarely elected to the position.

Historically, there haven’t been very many non-European popes. Pope Francis is from Argentina and was the first non-European to hold the position in nearly 1300 years. He was also the first Latin American pontiff and the first Jesuit in his position.

Both Luis Tagle and Marc Ouellet have a real chance at leading the Catholic Church after Pope Francis retires. They’re from Asia and North America, respectively. This will motivate a lot of bettors to choose a continent different from Europe.

However, history is the reason why the next pope betting odds favor a European, and the Vatican is still very conservative. Only a handful of clerics outside of Europe have ever held the position, and it’s unwise to bet against tradition. 217 popes were born in Italy alone!

My Pick:

Name of the Next Pope Odds and Betting Pick

  • Francis; +125
  • John Paul; +600
  • Leo; +800
  • Benedict; +1200
  • John; +1200
  • Paul; +1200

The most-used papal name is John, with 21 popes using that moniker in the past. However, the next pope betting odds show that Francis is most likely the name of the new successor. That would honor the current pope, but I would consider other options because of the low odds.

You shouldn’t confuse Pope John Paul with Pope John, which are two different names entirely. The most recent Pope John Paul (John Paul II) served from 1978 to 2005. The most recent Pope John (Pope John XXIII) died in 1963 during his papacy.

Note Box Icon

Leo is another name near the top of the betting odds. No pope has used Leo since 1903 when Pope Leo XIII held the position. He was the oldest pope in history at 93, and the only pope who lived a longer life was Benedict XVI.

Despite the expectations, I find it unlikely that the next pope will use the same name as his predecessor. However, the name John Paul feels like too easy of choice. Tagle, a co-favorite to become the next pope, also doesn’t seem like a John Paul.

I have another idea based on my prediction that Cardinal Peter Erdo will be the next pope. I expect him to be conservative in his choice, so Leo makes a lot of sense, and the odds are really high.