2023 NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader Betting Odds and Predictions

The 2023 NFL passing touchdowns leader betting odds are up, allowing you to wager on the player that you believe will find the end zone the most times. The QB position in the NFL is also loaded with talent, so predicting the winner won’t be easy.

Patrick Mahomes, who led the NFL in passing TDs last season, will try to reclaim his title. Can the two-time MVP go back-to-back, or will it be another QB who finishes on top? I want to offer you my analysis of the contenders and share my predictions, but let’s start with the betting odds.

I want to begin by analyzing the main favorites to throw the most passing TDs in 2023. Plenty of bettors will pick Mahomes because of his accomplishments from last season. However, I also want to focus on the top QBs who could challenge him.

• Age: 27
• Team: Kansas City Chiefs
• Career Passing Touchdowns: 192

The main favorite is a surprise to no one. It’s Patrick Mahomes – his career includes two NFL MVPs and two Super Bowl titles. He’s just 27 years old and already has the accomplishments of a Hall of Fame player. Mahomes also has plenty of time left to add even more achievements to his NFL résumé.

The Chiefs QB led the league in passing touchdowns in 2022-23. He found the end zone 41 times through the air, finishing ahead of both Joe Borrow and Josh Allen. Mahomes has now led the NFL in passing TDs annually on two different occasions.

The numbers also favor Mahomes heavily. Since 2018, he’s averaged over 38 passing touchdowns per season. That kind of consistency is as good as it gets in the NFL. No other player has thrown more TDs than Mahomes during that stretch.

Mahomes is a safe bet, but leading the NFL in passing TDs in consecutive seasons isn’t easy. Betting against Mahomes is also difficult because Kansas City has multiple talented pass catchers on the roster. This includes Travis Kelce, who caught 12 touchdowns last season.

• Age: 27
• Team: Buffalo Bills
• Career Passing Touchdowns: 138

Josh Allen is an excellent player who contends for the NFL MVP award every season. That’s because he scores a lot of touchdowns – through the air and on the ground. In 2022-23, Allen was tied for second in the NFL with 35 TD passes.

The consistency shown by Allen over the last three years is also encouraging. He’s thrown for 35 or more touchdowns each season during that stretch. His ceiling could be even higher in 2023-24 given the group of pass catchers around him.

I like Allen a lot because he’s an MVP-caliber player and an established NFL superstar. Does he have what it takes to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns? Yes, but that also depends on how the other top QBs in the NFL perform.

• Age: 26
• Team: Cincinnati Bengals
• Career Passing Touchdowns: 82

Joe Burrow was the other player who tied with Allen for the second-most TD passes in 2022-23. The young QB is entering his fourth season having already played in the Super Bowl. Burrow also led the Bengals to the AFC title game last season but lost to the Chiefs.

Cincinnati has one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL – Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Together, they hauled in 16 receiving touchdowns in 2022-23. Replicating that kind of production will benefit Burrow immensely this upcoming season.

I also have to mention that Burrow suffered a calf injury in training camp. The initial timetable for his return is several weeks. However, there’s the uncertainty that he won’t be ready to play by Week 1. I urge you to follow any updates regarding his condition.

Burrow is one of the best young QBs in the NFL who’s got years of success ahead of him. Will he be healthy enough to play a full season for the Bengals? Missing a few games could prevent him from claiming the passing TD title, so follow the news around him in the upcoming weeks.

• Age: 39
• Team: New York Jets
• Career Passing Touchdowns: 475

Aaron Rodgers is a four-time NFL MVP who had the most passing TDs in a season as recently as 2020. Rodgers is also a future Hall of Famer, but he’ll play for a team other than the Packers for the first time in his career.

When you look at the numbers, Rodgers underachieved last season. His quarterback rating was 91.1, the lowest it’s been in seven years. Rodgers also threw double-digit interceptions for the first time since 2010.

Obviously, the expectations are sky-high for Rodgers all the time. Since he became the starting QB for Green Bay in 2008, he’s thrown fewer than 25 TDs in a season only twice. Rodgers is still an NFL superstar, although he’s also in the final state of his career.

Will Rodgers bounce back and lead the NFL in passing touchdowns? This is his first season with the Jets, so there’s going to be a learning curve. I think it could take him another year before he’s back in peak form.

You should also consider targeting a few sleepers with your betting pick for the NFL passing TDs leader. Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow are the obvious options, but what about an underdog? I want to focus on a few players who could surprise everyone.

• Trevor Lawrence (+2800). Lawrence made a massive leap forward during his second NFL season. He threw 25 TD passes, which is more than double what he had as a rookie.
• Kirk Cousins (+3000). Bookies seem to be ignoring the fact that the Vikings won 13 games last season. Cousins was one of the key difference-makers, throwing for 29 touchdowns.
• Jared Goff (+3000). Not enough people are paying attention to Lions QB Jared Goff either. He’s thrown for 28 or more touchdowns in a season on three different occasions.
• Matthew Stafford (+4000). Stafford threw 41 touchdowns in 2021-22, finishing second to Tom Brady. If he can stay healthy, I expect Stafford to throw at least 35 TDs this upcoming season.

There’s no question that Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL right now. However, that doesn’t mean he’s going to throw the most passing TDs every year. In 2023-24, I think there’ll be a new leader, which is why I’m choosing Josh Allen.

I also recommend a small wager on Stafford. The odds of +4000 are way too high for a guy who threw 41 touchdowns just a couple of seasons ago.