Gambling on baseball games is one of the favorite pastimes of profit-winning handicappers. The game has been broken down to hundreds of individual moments, each with its own easily trackable statistics and data. It’s also an incredibly long season, which provides mountains of data to the handicappers that wish to climb them.
Furthermore, baseball is the sport with the slightest gap between the best and worst teams. This means upsets occur more frequently in this game than any other major professional league. As we all know, upsets are where the money is earned. In fact, more so than any other sport, a handicapper can have a losing average while still raking in the cash while betting on baseball.
We are going to cover the most essential steps to becoming a money-winning sports gambler by betting on this great sport. If you follow a staking plan, know which variables to prioritize, and search out value, you’ll be well on your way to significant profits. It just takes an understanding of how to approach sports wagering, a lot of research, and a little patience.
Create a Staking Plan
If you have any hope of winning money through sports gambling in the long term, the first thing you’ll need is a well-designed staking plan. These are just systems for how you’ll organize your money on a per-bet basis. You either choose a fixed or variable plan and then have a predetermined amount that you’ll risk on each wager.
But before you choose which staking plan you’ll use, you’ll first need to decide on the size of your bankroll and the frequency with which you’ll be gambling. Choose an amount of money that you can afford to lose without it negatively impacting your life in any way. Then set that money aside to be your gambling bankroll over a set length of time. Once you have those values figured out, you’re ready for a staking plan.
Fixed Staking Plans
A fixed staking plan means that you’ll be betting either the same amount of money or the same percentage of your bankroll for each bet.
Let’s say your $100 bankroll needs to last for the next ten games. If you chose a fixed amount, you’d risk $10 per bet over the course of the ten games, and this amount would not change no matter if you won or lost along the way.
If you made a fixed staking plan by percentage, you’d risk a portion of your bankroll each bet, so your stakes would increase or decrease slightly on each bet, depending on the overall size of the bankroll. So, if you were betting 10% of your bankroll per game (an unusually high number) and won your first game with $10 on the line, the new total would come out to something like $115, depending on the odds. The next wager, at 10% of the total, would then be for $11.50. And you’d continue to increase or decrease your actual stakes dependent upon the overall value of your bank.
Variable Staking Plans
Variable staking plans can come in many shapes and sizes. The basic idea is that the amount you risk per wager varies slightly based on some factor.
While the amount bet per contest will change from game to game, there is still an organization to the system that will keep you from running out of your bankroll too soon or wasting your profits on poorly thought-out wagers.
The reason you need a staking plan is to ensure that you’ll be rewarded for playing the percentages of probability correctly. If you are hoping to turn a profit through baseball betting, you’ll need to bet for value. The only way playing the odds and betting for value will pay off long term is if you’re staking similar or at least planned amounts per contest.
Know What Variables to Focus On
Once you have some idea of how much money you have to gamble with overall and how much you’ll be staking per game, it’s time to handicap the matchups. This is where you dig into the statistics and data and calculate the probabilities each team has of winning their game. These are some of the variables to consider when determining the likelihood of victory for a club.
Travel takes an enormous toll on baseball players during their marathon 162-game regular season. Players are consistently embarking on long road trips that keep them away from home weeks at a time. Of course, this kind of constant travel and jet lag has an effect on athletic performance.
Research studies have shown one of the significant reasons that travel impacts baseball performance so drastically is due to players’ circadian rhythms. These are the natural internal body clocks that decide when we should wake, sleep, eat, etc. As it turns out, teams traveling from west to east are at a significant disadvantage when the game is played one or more time zones away.
So, when you’re searching for contests to bet on, east coast teams returning home from a long road trip out west are ideal. Furthermore, it takes athletes’ bodies a full twenty-four hours to recover for each time zone passed through. A team coming home to New York or Boston after a lengthy visit to California and Arizona is ideal.
One factor that makes baseball unique compared to other sports is how the dimensions of the ballparks change from location to location. While the distances from the mound to home plate and between the bases always stays constant, the outfield walls do not. This leads to some parks favoring hitters while others are beneficial to the pitching staffs.
Before placing a bet on a game, you’ll want to research the stadium in which it will be played.
Is it a hitter’s or a pitcher’s park? Furthermore, does it help right-handed or left-handed players more? There are baseball analytics websites that track all of the park factors so that you may compare the results in that stadium with the lineups that you’ll be betting on and make an educated decision on how things will play out.
As much as the ballpark plays a role in the outcome of a game, the umpire behind home plate makes an even more substantial contribution. The strike zone utilized in a contest will totally impact the result of the matchup. Umpires with larger strike zones tend to officiate low-scoring pitchers duels more often.
Just like the park factors, umpire statistics can be found online as well. Simply see any baseball analytics website, and they will have notes on the officiating crews. An excellent opportunity to turn a profit is when a team’s ace is pitching but an ump with a small strike zone is calling the game. The majority of the public solely bets based on starting pitching, but with the right person calling balls and strikes, this can be a perfect time to fade the public.
Starting pitching is the first factor anyone looks at when gambling on baseball. Because the entire betting public uses this approach, you won’t want it to weigh too heavily on your decision, but you still need to research who is starting.
After all, there’s no player in the sport that has more input on a game’s result than the starting pitcher.
The importance of starting pitching depends on the type of bet made. Most bookmakers allow you to wager on either the full game or the first 4.5 to 5 innings. These partial-game wagers are meant to allow gamblers to place bets that increase the significance of starting pitching and eliminate variables such as bullpens and closers, for the most part.
If you are betting on the full nine innings, relief pitching becomes much more crucial. A team may not have their ace on the mound, but with a strong enough set of relievers, they may not need them. It’s worth taking the time to research the strength of each team’s bullpen and weigh that against who is starting for each club and how long you expect them to last.
Winning or Losing Streaks
While a team’s overall record may tell a story about their season, it may not accurately represent how they have been playing recently. That’s why you should analyze recent performances and look for teams riding winning or losing streaks. Once you’ve found a few teams that have either won or lost three games in a row, look at the odds being offered.
These teams are statistically less likely to bounce back for a big win. Conversely, avoid betting against clubs that are favored and have won more than three games in a row. These teams are carrying some positive momentum into a contest against an overmatched foe and will most likely continue their winning ways.
As always, it’s also a good idea to take a peek at each squad’s home and away record. These won’t always be statistically significant, but if they are, it’s worth factoring into your probabilities. If you’re thinking about betting on a road team with a bad away record, you may want to look for any patterns in the types of stadiums they’re losing in. If the game is being played in a park similar to their home park, their away record may not be relevant.
Similarly, a team that is much better at home than away will have some reason for being so. What does their park favor? If it’s hitters, think about what pitcher they’re facing and who the umpire is in relation to that home record. Do they need everything to be in the batter’s favor to win games? It’s all about weighing the combination of variables to get the best idea of how the game will play out.
Make Bets with Positive Value
Betting for Value
Once you’ve calculated your own probabilities for each team winning, it’s time to start shopping for lines. You’re not just going to place a bet on every team that you have favored to win. Instead, you are going to search out odds that have positive value for you.
Think of shopping for value in terms of betting on a coin toss. With only two possible results, each result of a coin toss has precisely a 50% chance of landing. So, the proper odds for this bet would be for heads and tails to each be offered at -100, or even money.
Let’s say they offered heads at -125 and tails at +200. In this situation, you have to bet on tails because that’s where all of the value is. It doesn’t matter how strongly you feel about the result of the next toss; the probability of tails landing is higher than the odds it’s being offered at suggests.
The implied probability is the likelihood of a result taking place, determined by the odds set by the bookmakers. So, if the odds are set at +200 for a team, that’s the sportsbook’s way of saying that a team has a 33.3% chance of winning that contest. That’s why, in the example above, a coin toss with a 50% chance of landing on either side is valuable at +200 odds.
You’d only need to hit 33.3% of the coin tosses to break even, and you know that the math says that you’ll win more frequently than that in the long run. Similarly, after handicapping all of the matchups based on the variables above, if a team’s real probability of winning is higher than the one the odds suggest, that’s a great bet.
Winning money by betting on baseball is really all about the approach. An unorganized bettor that’s solely reading about the games and betting based on which team they think will win is already lost. Long-term, earning significant profits through sports gambling takes more discipline and strategy.
Rather than trying to pick winners, the real name of the game is “value.” Any bet you make should exclusively be with this concept in mind. You handicap the matchups, determine the percentage probability of each team winning, and compare those numbers to the implied probability. This will be a percentage of likelihood you calculate based on the odds being offered by bookmakers.
Once you’ve found situations in which the reality of a scenario playing out is higher than the odds suggest, those are the games you hammer with your bets. As long as you stick to a disciplined staking plan, over time the money should add up.
You’ll have ups and downs for sure, but math never lies, and as long as your approach is sound, the results will soon follow. The more effort you put into your research and predictions, the more fruitful the entire endeavor will be. Once you get the hang of it, be sure to keep coming back so we can continue to assist you in making a profit by betting on baseball.