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Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Betting Odds and Pick

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers Logos - NFL Logo

The San Francisco 49ers open their 2019 playoff campaign against the upstart Minnesota Vikings at Levi’s Stadium on January 11, 2020.

The 49ers are the NFC West Champions and the top seed in the NFC after a 13-3 SU season. San Francisco clinched the division title and conference top seed in the final week of the regular season. The Vikings traveled to New Orleans as the 6th seed but the return of running back Dalvin Cook and the re-emergence of Adam Thielen proved pivotal. With two of his offensive weapons clicking, Kirk Cousins delivered one of his best games to lead the Vikings to an upset of the Saints.

Cousins Proved Critics Wrong

Kirk Cousins had been labeled as the quarterback who didn’t show up in big games but he proved his critics wrong in the wild card round as he completed the winning touchdown drive that sent the 3rd seeded New Orleans Saints packing. Cousins tossed a TD pass to Kyle Rudolph on 3rd and goal and completed a 43-yard pass to Adam Thielen that set up the winning score.

During the regular season, Cousins threw for a total of 3,603 passing yards with 26 touchdowns and six interceptions. Dalvin Cook was the Vikings’ top rusher with 1,153 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. Stefon Diggs led the receiving group with 1,130 receiving yards and six touchdown catches.

While Cousins had an impressive outing against the Saints, the Minnesota defense also did its job, holding the Saints to 20 points in their matchup. New Orleans had scored at least 34 points in six out of their previous seven games played and scored on 80% of their red-zone trips in their last three outings before facing the Vikings.

Moneyline Odds:

  • Vikings (+255) | 49ers (-325)
  • Odds from SportsBetting as of 01/07/19

NFC West Champions

The San Francisco 49ers defeated the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17 to win the NFC West Division. The victory also earned them a bye in the first round of the playoffs after finishing with the best record in the NFC Conference. They finished the regular season with a 13-3 SU record and were 9-6-1 ATS as well. The 49ers will host the 6th seeded Minnesota Vikings and they are heavy favorites to win at home on January 11th.

Jimmy Garoppolo threw for a total of 3,978 passing yards with 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions during the regular season. Raheem Mostert led the rushing attack with 772 rushing yards with seven touchdowns while George Kittles caught 1,053 receiving yards with five scores for San Francisco.

The 49ers ranked 2nd in the league in rushing at 144.1 yards per game and they led the league with a total of 23 rushing touchdowns. The defense was San Francisco’s calling card with Nick Bosa leading the charge. However, their defense faltered in the final month of the regular season, giving up over 31 points per game in their final four regular-season assignments.

Who Wins?

Minnesota is 9-4 SU in their last 13 games played. The Vikings are 5-4 SU in nine road games played this season. San Francisco is 13-3 SU in their last 16 games played. The 49ers are 6-2 SU in eight home games played this year. Head to head, the Vikings have won six out of their last 10 meetings against the 49ers. However, San Francisco is 9-1 SU in their last 10 home games against Minnesota.

Minnesota looked dangerous with a rejuvenated Adam Thielen and a healthy Dalvin Cook. Cook had been limited by a shoulder injury and missed the previous two games. He came back to rush for 94 yards with two touchdowns against the Saints. My only concern here is how will a short week affects Cook who had 28 carries against New Orleans.

San Francisco is expecting defensive end Dee Ford to return against Minnesota and reports are also saying that linebacker Kwon Alexander has a shot to play against the Vikings. The San Francisco defense allowed over 30 points in their final four games after giving up fewer than 20 points previously.

The 49ers defense has been banged up in recent weeks and if they get a couple of their key defensive men back, then the Vikings’ offense will have a problem here. The Minnesota defense allowed five catches and 54 yards to Jared Cook in their last outing. George Kittles should have a big game for the 49ers and San Francisco’s defense will complete the job.


San Francisco 49ers

Other Bets to Make

The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played. Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the NFC Conference, and 4-2 ATS in their last six January games. The 49ers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games played. San Francisco is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven January games but are only 5-14-1 in their last 20 games as betting favorites. Head to head, the Vikings are 5-3 ATS in their last 10 games played against the 49ers.

Spread Odds:

  • Vikings +7 (-115) | 49ers -7 (-105)
  • Odds from SportsBetting as of 01/07/19

Minnesota has outscored San Francisco by an average of 4.4 points per game in their last 10 meetings and by less than a point in their last three head to head encounters. I think this game goes down to which teams play better defense. Regardless of who wins, I think this will be decided by less than a touchdown. I like the 49ers to win but I’ll take the plus points and the underdogs. San Francisco is 3-4-1 ATS at home this season.


Vikings +7

The total has gone over in 8 out of the last 12 games played by the Vikings. The over is 5-1 in Minnesota’s last six games played on the road. The total has gone over in seven out of the last 10 games played by the 49ers. San Francisco has seen the total go over in five out of their last six games played at home. The over is also 7-2 in their last nine games against the NFC Conference. Head to head, the under is 3-0 in the last three meetings between these two teams.

Over/Under Odds:

  • Over 44.5 (-110) | Under 44.5 (-110)
  • Odds from SportsBetting as of 01/07/19

The 49ers defense regressed in the final four weeks of the regular season due to injuries. And while they are expected to get a couple of their key men on defense back, they won’t solve the problem overnight. San Francisco allowed their opponents to convert 50% of their third downs and 90% of their red-zone trips in the final three weeks of the season. I think this is a close game with each team scoring at least in the mid-’20s.


Over 44.5