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UFC Fight Night 167 Prelims Undercard Betting Predictions

Corey Anderson and Jan Blachowicz 2 Prelims Undercard - UFC Fight Night 167 Logo

The UFC takes its act to the Santa Ana Star Center in Rio Rancho, New Mexico for UFC Fight Night 167: Anderson vs Blachowicz 2 on February 15, 2020.

The event will be headlined by a light heavyweight showdown between contenders Corey Anderson and Jan Blachowicz with the winner having the upper hand to get the next crack at Jon Jones’ belt. Before the main show, the fight card has several attractions in the prelims undercard including Tim Means, John Dodson, and Jim Miller who all have fought in the main card before.

Let’s take a look at the prelims and pick our winners for the bouts:

Tim Means vs Daniel Rodriguez

Tim Means is a former King of Cage Lightweight champion and Junior Welterweight champion. Dirty Bird is 35-years old and stands 6-2 with a reach of 75 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. He has a record of 29-11-1-1 with 19 knockouts and 5 wins by submission. He’s lost three out of his last five bouts with two losses coming by split decision. Means is coming off a submission win over Thiago Alves.

Daniel Rodriguez was a replacement for Ramazan Emeev. The 33-year old has a record of 10-1 with six wins by knockouts and three via submission. He stands 6-1 tall with a reach of 63 inches and is a southpaw fighter. Rodriguez has won six straight fights, five by stoppage and is coming off a TKO win over Quinton McCottrell. He will be making his UFC debut in this bout.

Moneyline Odds:

  • Means (-319) | Rodriguez (+269)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 02/14/20

Rodriguez tends to overcommit when throwing his overhand left, leaving his head wide open. Dirty Bird has 19 knockouts and has the technical skills to read that. If Rodriguez decides to stand up and brawl with Tim Means, it’s over for him. But if he takes it to the ground, Rodriguez has a shot. But Means is a fighter that’s tough to keep down and he’ll likely get up from one of the takedowns and land a big one here.

ODDS-319

MY PICK:
Tim Means

John Dodson vs Nathaniel Wood

John Dodson is the 12th ranked bantamweight in the UFC. He was the winner of Spike TV’s The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisping vs Team Miller tournament and fights out of Jackson MMA. The Magician is 35 years old with a height of 5-3 and a reach of 66 inches while fighting out of the southpaw stance. He has a record of 20-11 with nine knockouts and two wins by submission.

Nathaniel Wood is a former Cage Warriors bantamweight champion. The 26-year old Englishman stands 5-6 with a reach of 69 inches while fighting as an orthodox fighter. Wood has a record of 16-3 with nine knockouts and five wins by submission. He 3-0 with three wins via submission inside the octagon.

Moneyline Odds:

  • Dodson (+135) | Wood (-155)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 02/14/20

We’ve seen Dodson decline in recent years but it’s not because he no longer has the physical tools nor because he is fighting at the wrong weight class. The problem with Dodson is that he has never evolved as a fighter. Woods has the edge in length here and he also has the more diverse striking skills so if the Magician is still the same low-output banger we’ve seen before, Dodson won’t stand a chance here. Between Dodson getting a knockout and Wood out-striking him, the latter is more likely to happen.

ODDS-155

MY PICK:
Nathaniel Wood

Jim Miller Scott Holtzman

Jim Miller is the brother of ex-UFC fighter Dan Miller and he owns the record for most win in the lightweight division history with 19. He is a ten-time post-fight bonus winner whose 2012 bout versus Joe Lauzon was named Fight of the Year. Miller has a record of 31-13 with 4 knockouts and 17 wins by submission. He is 36-years old and stands 5-7 with a reach of 71 inches while fighting as a southpaw.

Scott Holtzman is the former lightweight champion of the Xtreme Fighting Championships. This 36-year old known as Hot Sauce stands 5-9 tall with a reach of 70 inches and fights as an orthodox fighter. He has a record of 13-3 with five knockouts and two wins by submission. He is 6-3 inside the octagon and is coming off a TKO win over Dong Hyun Ma last August 2019.

Moneyline Odds:

  • Miller (+126) | Holtzman (-146)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 02/14/20

Holtzman is taller but Miller has a longer reach. When it comes to wrestling, Holtzman isn’t consistent. He gave up five takedowns to Nik Lentz and he can’t afford the same against Miller who can still give the top-ranked lightweights trouble if he’s on top position. For sure, Miller is past his prime and that alone gives Holtzman a big advantage. However, Miller has never lost to an unranked fighter before and I think he delivers one more big performance against Holtzman.

ODDS+126

MY PICK:
Jim Miller

Casey Kenney vs Merab Dvalishvili

Casey Kenney is a former LFA interim bantamweight champion who joined the UFC last March 2019. He’s pulled off a pair of high profile wins, beating Ray Borg and Manny Bermudez in his first two UFC assignments. He has a record of 13-1 with four knockouts and two submissions. He stands 5-7 tall with a reach of 68 inches while fighting as a southpaw.

Merab Dvalishvili started his UFC career with back to back losses to Frankie Saenz and Ricky Simon. But he’s picked up two straight victories in his last two outings. Dvalishvili defeated Terrion Ware in September 2018 and then he out-pointed TUF winner Brad Katona last May 2019. Dvalishvili is 9-4 with two knockouts and 1 submission win. He stands 5-6 tall with a reach of 68 inches while fighting as an orthodox fighter.

Moneyline Odds:

  • Kenney (+143) | Dvalishvili (-163)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 02/14/20

Although Kenney used to fight at flyweight, Dvalishvili is the smaller man here. Dvalishvili is exciting on his feet and has an unstoppable takedown. And although Kenney fared well wrestling against a much bigger Manny Bermudez, I’m not sure if he can put Dvalishvili on his back or do anything significant if he can get on his opponent’s back. Unless Kenney somehow finds the neck here, I think Dvashvili will dominate this bout with takedowns.

ODDS-163

MY PICK:
Merab Dvalishvili

Macy Chiasson vs Shanna Young

Macy Chiasson is an alumnus of the TUF 28 tournament who has a record of 5-1 with two knockouts and two wins by submission. After picking up three straight octagon wins, Chiasson faced Lana Lansberg and got out-struck. She is 5-11 tall with a reach of 72 inches.

Shanna Young took this fight on less than one week’s notice after Nicco Montano pulled out. She earned a spot at the Contender series but lost Sarah Alpar. She also joined the Phoenix Series of Invicta FC and lost to eventual winner Miranda Maverick. The Shanimal has a record of 7-2 with one knockout and three wins via submission. She stands 5-7 tall with a reach of 65 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Moneyline Odds:

  • Chiasson (-900) | Young (+600)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 02/14/20

Chiasson has problems when she cannot physically overpower her opponents. If her opponent was Montano, she wouldn’t be able to bulldoze her because of the latter’s skills. I can’t say the same for Young who is a natural flyweight and who is facing one of the most physically imposing bantamweights on the roster. Young is easy to hit and easy to take down. Those will put s smile on Macy Chiasson’s face. I think Chiasson puts Young away here, either by pounding her on the ground or destroying her against the fence.

ODDS-900

MY PICK:
Macy Chiasson

Mark De La Rosa vs Raulian Paiva

Mark De La Rosa is the 13th ranked flyweight in the UFC. Bumblebee is 25 years old and stands 5-6 with a reach of 65 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. De La Rosa has a record of 11-3 with one knockout and six wins by submission. He is coming off back to back losses to Alex Perez and Kai-Kara France.

Raulian Paiva has a record of 18-3 with three knockouts and three wins by submission. He stands 5-8 tall with a reach of 69 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance. Paiva entered the UFC with a 12 fight winning streak but has lost his first two octagon fights. He appeared in Dana White’s Contender Series where he defeated Allan Nascimento via decision.

Moneyline Odds:

  • De La Rosa (+210) | Paiva (-250)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 02/14/20

Paiva has the size advantage here. He is two inches taller and has a 4.5 inches edge in reach over De La Rosa. He is 0-2 inside the octagon but is much better than what his UFC record shows. He has great takedown defense and good scrambling ability which makes him a tough opponent for grapplers like De La Rosa. The latter has struggled to impose his wrestling in the UFC and his striking won’t match Paiva’s. The threat of getting submitted is always there but I think Paiva gains momentum as the fight goes in deep waters. The Brazilian takes this in a sprawl and brawl match.

ODDS-250

MY PICK:
Raulian Paiva