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Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Odds and Pick

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Logos - NFL Logo

The Houston Texans travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in this AFC divisional round playoff game.

The Texans stole victory from the jaws of defeat as they came from behind to defeat the Buffalo Bills in overtime during their wild card assignment. The Texans are 11-6 SU and 8-8-1 ATS this season including 5-2-1 ATS on the road. On the other hand, the Chiefs earned the first-round bye after the Dolphins upset the Patriots in Week 17. Kansas City enters the playoffs after a 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS regular season where they went 6-0 SU and ATS in their final six assignments.

Texans Steal Victory

The Houston Texans proved to be the more solid team as they stole victory from the Buffalo Bills in the wild card round. Houston came from behind and rallied to beat the Bills 22-19 in overtime to advance to the divisional round of the playoffs where they will take on the AFC West winners.

DeShaun Watson had a terrific game against the Bills. He passed for a touchdown and rushed for another one during regulation then led the drive that ended with the game-winning field goal. Watson passed for 3,852 passing yards with 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions during the regular season. Carlos Hyde rushed for 1,070 yards with six touchdowns and DeAndre Hopkins had 1,165 receiving yards with seven touchdowns.

The Texans’ 29th ranked pass defense got a break against Josh Allen but will have their hands full against Patrick Mahomes on Sunday. Wide receiver Will Fuller V is expected to return after missing the last few weeks of the regular season with a groin injury. If he is good to go, he will help open up the field for DeShaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins to operate.

Moneyline Odds:

  • Texans (+350) | Chiefs(-450)
  • Odds from SportsBetting as of 01/09/20

Six Game Winning Streak

The Kansas City Chiefs head to the divisional round of the 2019 NFL Playoffs with a six-game winning streak going for them. Kansas City finished the regular season with a 12-4 SU record and was crowned as the AFC West Division champions. The Chiefs lost to the Texans 24-31 at Arrowhead in Week 6 but Patrick Mahomes played with an injured ankle in that game.

Mahomes threw for a total of 3,857 passing yards with 25 touchdowns and four interceptions during the regular season. LeShaun McCoy led the rushing offense with a total of 465 rushing yards with four touchdowns while Travis Kelce caught a total of 1,205 receiving yards with five touchdowns.

Kansas City’s rush defense allowed just 87 rushing yards per game in the final two months of the season and they were ranked 8th in the league in pass defense at 221.4 passing yards per game allowed. The Chiefs were ranked 5th in pass offense and their rush offense averaged 120 yards per game, 12th overall this season.

Who Wins?

Houston is 5-2 SU in their last seven games played. The Texans are 5-3 ATS in eight road games played this season and 14-6 SU in their last 20 games against the AFC Conference. Kansas City is 6-0 SU in their last seven games played. The Chiefs are 5-3 SU in eight home games played this season, 5-0 SU in their last five games against the AFC, and 5-0 SU in their last five Sunday games. Head to head, the Chiefs are 4-2 SU in their last six games played against the Texans.

Houston snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against Buffalo to reach this point. Josh Allen’s inexperience showed and he allowed the Texans to come from behind and win the game. Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins will once again lead Houston in this contest.

The Chiefs are 22-4 SU all-time after the regular season or after a first-round bye. Patrick Mahomes should have a good day against the 29th ranked passing defense in the NFL. Kansas City also ranks 8th against the pass this year and their rush defense was ranked third in the last three weeks of the season.

I think that the Chiefs will be too much for the Texans at Arrowhead. Kansas City has won five in a row at home, six overall and are peaking at the right time. Houston got away against Josh Allen but Patrick Mahomes could tear apart the Houston pass defense. I like the Chiefs to roll with Mahomes here.

ODDS-450

MY PICK:
Kansas City Chiefs

Other Bets to Make

The Texans are 11-6 ATS in 17 games played this season. Houston is 5-3 ATS in eight road games played this year and 6-3 ATS in their last nine games as the betting underdogs. The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games played. Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played at home, and 9-3 ATS against the AFC this season. Head to head, the Texans have covered the spread in two out of their last three meetings against the Chiefs.

Spread Odds:

  • Texans +9.5 (-105) | Chiefs -9.5 (-115)
  • Odds from SportsBetting as of 01/09/20

The Chiefs head home on a roll. They have won six consecutive games and have gone 6-0 ATS over that span. Mahomes should have his way against a Houston defense that allowed 33 touchdowns through the air during the regular season. Houston is just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games after an ATS win. Kansas City’s defense has improved and its offense has become more balanced.

ODDS-115

MY PICK:
Chiefs -9.5

The total has gone under in seven out of the last 10 games played by Houston. The under is 4-1 in the Texans’ last five road games, and also 5-2 in their last seven January games. The total has gone under in five out of the last six games played by the Chiefs. Kansas City has seen the total go under in nine out of their last 13 games played against the AFC South Division. The under is also 11-5 in their last 16 January games. Head to head, the over is 2-1 in the last three meetings between these two teams.

Over/Under Odds:

  • Over 51 (-110) | Under 51 (-110)
  • Odds from SportsBetting as of 01/09/20

These teams have combined to score an average of 46.8 points per game in their last 10 meetings. The total has gone under in five out of the last six games played by the Chiefs with an average combined score of 39.33 points while the under is 4-0 in the Texans’ last four road games with an average combined score of 41.25 points. Kansas City has an improved defense and Houston was just in the middle of the pack in scoring. I like these teams to play to the under in this contest.

ODDS-110

MY PICK:
Under 51