Are you all fans of the movie Glengarry Glen Ross? No? Well, I’m going anyway.
Let’s talk about something important. PUT THAT COFFEE DOWN. Coffee is for winning bettors only. I’m here from downtown. I’m here from Handy and Capper. And I’m here on a mission of mercy.
You’ve got a week to regain your poise as a successful sports gambler. Starting with tonight’s bets.
If you win a whole bunch of trifectas, you can afford a Cadillac Eldorado.
If you win a (+200) moneyline pick, you can get some new steak knives.
Lose your next 10 bets and miss work out of depression, you’re fired.
The predictions you’re reading are weak? You’re weak! I’ve been in this business 15 years. What’s my name? Buzz off, that’s my name. Only one thing counts in this life!
- A. B. W.
Always Be Winning.
Nice guy? I don’t care. Good Mom? Ffffff…..for the sake of dropping the gag and getting on with it, it’s impossible to win every sports bet you ever place. It may not even be possible to win 50% of your bets, and even if you do, the sportsbook sets you up for long-term losses by quietly taking 10% of an average wager. And just when you think you’re winning, bad luck will befall your next chosen team.
Never fear. Sports betting advice must be about more than trying to pick the right teams and the right gambles. A system for picking Major League Baseball or Premier League outcomes is great, but managing your bankroll is ultimately the most important “system” of all.
That’s because the only people who “always win” in sports betting are the bookmakers. If you’re interested in starting your own sportsbook, here’s a brief. Let’s just say it’s lucrative. People will never stop betting for fun without stopping to think about their wagers first.
Some of our Favorite Successful Sportsbooks
Advantage of the Hobby Sports Bettor Over the Shark
There are few tutorials online that deal with integrating a bankroll-management system and the actual realities of online sports betting. My recommended system is a little different because it recognizes “value” for the hobby gambler as more than just dollars and sense.
Did you ever see the old 60 Minutes biography of Billy Walters? Walters may have wound up in trouble with John Q. Law later in life, but for a time, he was the most-successful gridiron gambler out there.
I kind of feel sorry for Walters in some of his gambling footage. On the golf course, he and his match partner throw so many numbers back and forth at each other that it would take specialized bookie-caddies to jot it all down. If someone walks up to me on the putting green and says, “2, 4, 7, carry the 10 and double-up widow toss” I’m going to assume he’s gotten his sports mixed up.
Walters looked like an air-traffic controller when gambling on a Saturday afternoon, barking orders and collecting odds and tips on a headset. It wasn’t the look of a happy person, but the look of an obsessed “systems” gambler who just couldn’t win enough.
Notice that there’s a touch of genuine happiness in Walters voice when he describes a massive bet that paid off on the post-Hurricane Katrina New Orleans Saints in the Super Bowl…a team he was actually cheering for based on non-gambling reasons:
That’s the key. Sports betting has to be about money, but it should be about enjoying sports, too. Walters’ quest to win billions from Las Vegas succeeded for a brief time but eventually landed him in the clinker. How to have a chance to win big and yet avoid the same fate?
Balance, Daniel-San. Must have balance.
A Balanced Betting System With Exactly 2 Parts
The goals of any hobby sports gambler should be to enjoy yourself thoroughly, and stay in the black.
If you don’t stay in the black, you’ll deal with the frustration and guilt of having lost at the sportsbook and the chore of depositing more cash to refresh your stake.
If you don’t have fun, then there’s no point.
Betting should enhance your enjoyment of watching sports. Someone on Twitter recently asked me if anyone out there is making a living through sports betting. I said sure…but chances are they’re not having a whole lot of fun with it.
When he asked why, I said, “Career betting is going to an exchange and “laying” every road favorite in every Italian club soccer match from now until the end of time. Fun betting is a parlay on 4 ACC schools to beat 4 SEC schools on Rivalry Weekend.”
He seemed to understand what I meant at that point. Laying the Italian soccer teams has the better % chance of paying off. But the latter wager can make for a thrilling Saturday and occasionally a huge money-winner, especially if the parlay involves a bunch of matchups like Clemson vs South Carolina.
It takes a little knowledge of “system” betting – Italian club soccer or otherwise – to stay in the black. But we all need a little 4-team-college-football-parlay to keep having fun in life.
Here’s a way to organize and balance both…and to always be winning while enjoying the action too.
The Clark Kent Account and the Superman Account
Determine the amount of $ you can afford to deposit at a sports betting site. That’s a standard tactic for the newbie or the veteran gamer who’d like to make a fresh start.
But instead of depositing the funds at a single site, open a pair of accounts at different books.
The strategy game of choosing from different sportsbooks to place a given wager (once you’re live at more than one betting site) ranges from simple to extremely complex. A good place to start is simply picking the most-favorable payoff odds for any gamble you’ve already decided to make, for instance if the Golden State Warriors are (-200) in one moneyline and (-175) in another. However, those kinds of compare-and-pick tactics are not the ultimate reason for having the 2 accounts.
Once you’ve picked out a couple of betting sites, put the majority of your funds (say, $300 out of $500) in the sportsbook that has the most thorough collection of odds on all sports. Bovada Sportsbook is an excellent choice, though books like BetOnline and MyBookie have been ramping-up their options in European sports and minor-league markets. The account with the biggest deposit at the site with the biggest map will become your “Clark Kent” account.
Then deposit the remaining smaller amount in the sportsbook with less markets. You will find that bookmakers who focus on a smaller array of events will offer a lot of interesting and tempting markets on the games that they do promote markets in. That’s why you’ve got less dough invested. Sportsbooks feed off of clients betting unwisely for pleasure. If you do get sucked into a bad bet at any point, you want it to be with the bookmaker who can take less of your money.
The 2nd one is your free-for-all deposit. Your “Superman” account. Just be careful of the Kryptonite.
Using Your Dual Accounts
The Clark Kent account at the deluxe sportsbook exists with the goal of keeping both of your accounts in the black on aggregate.
With the Clark Kent account, make bets on individual games which you have handicapped with the help of stats, advice, and analysis from real journalists (not tabloids or chicken scratch). It’s also important to play at least one kind of “system” for wagering on a regular basis and winning those bets at least 54% or 55% of the time.
A handy system that you know lends an advantage over the house (even if small) is a great thing to have in your hip pocket. Not that engines can usually fit in pockets, but a system is like an engine that keeps your stake churning above water.
But engines need fuel, and in this case the fuel is your interest in the sport. It’s like growing and harvesting a garden. If you hate gardening and don’t care much for fresh produce, then your topsoil will go untended and the carrots will be spindly. You must enjoy watching your bets win or lose in order to achieve dedication with a system, so possibly look for alternatives to that whole “Italian club league” thing or even Major League Baseball 5-innings bets, which are full of systems-opportunities but also dreary to watch play out over 162 ballgames.
Alternatives to Pasta and Penalty Kicks
My personal favorite these days is live college-basketball O/U betting. I’ll be exploring the subject in more detail in another post soon, but the basics are easy to memorize.
Watch for the live-betting public to be tricked by shooting-% reversion in the 1st half, when O/U lines often sink below (120) if NCAA teams are taking all 30 seconds of the shot clock and having issues making open shots. That’s a great time to bet the Over. Shooting will revert back to an approximate 40% or 45%, free-throws will be made, the stronger of the 2 teams will likely make a charge early in the 2nd half…and a 60+ vs 60+ final score is all but assured.
Or, watch for that early 2nd-half barrage of point-scoring to drive the Over/Under to NBA-like heights in an otherwise ordinary college game. If a pair of teams happen to drain 4 or 5 treys to make the score 51-50 a few minutes into the 2nd frame, bettors will often scramble to bet the Over so quickly and in such volume that the O/U will climb to (165) or higher. Since the final score is unlikely to be 80-76 or higher given the chances of each squad going cold from the arc, the Under is a high-% wager in those circumstances. Especially when a superior team is about to take a 15-point lead and slow things down with bench-rotation minutes and long possessions.
It’s possible to win 60% or 70% of your live NCAA basketball bets using the above 2 tactics, but it takes the right touch and a lot of elbow grease.
Other systems for raising your stake include betting NFL underdogs on the moneyline and yes, yes indeed betting on home underdogs in soccer. Not necessarily Italian soccer, though.
The Clark Kent account, if managed properly, can pay for your wild excursions with the Superman account. If your recreational bets are losing, just withdraw funds from the system-betting account to deposit into the fun one.
Have Cape, Will Fly
With the protective “cape” of a carefully-managed account that can raise money for both stakes, your Superman account becomes the place to party. Go ahead and play your favorite wagers on your favorite events, even the Kentucky Derby.
My only advice other than “do as you wish” with the Superman account is to bet low-risk, high-reward markets whenever possible. Underdogs in single contests are fine, but think about futures too – that $50 investment in a club that could pay off 20-fold down the line. Bets made with spare change that can pay off substantially are what I like to call “life-changing winners” – winning bet slips that actually make a difference in your lifestyle or shopping habits.
The reason for all of your careful money management and sports-handicapping as Clark Kent is to keep the Superman account alive. So long as the Superman account is putting small bets on long-shot outcomes, you’ll have a chance to wake up one day and leap tall expenses in a single bound.
So yeah – the best way to make money in sports gambling is still to start your own sportsbook. It’s even legal now in many states! But the best way to enjoy yourself is to handicap and watch great athletes…and balance your bets for maximum advantage on the bookie.