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Gennady Golovkin Opens as Underdog in Canelo Trilogy Bout

Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin 3 - Boxing Ring Background

Former unified middleweight champion Gennadiy “Triple G” Golovkin has opened as the betting underdog in his third bout against Mexican superstar Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. It was reported that the two have agreed to fight this coming September at a venue still to be determined.

The first two bouts were held in Las Vegas and Golovkin ended up complaining about the decision after both fights. Likely, this fight won’t be held in Sin City with the Dallas Cowboys’ AT&T Stadium and New York’s Madison Square Garden a possibility, if the coronavirus pandemic will have subsided by then and the bans have been lifted.

Odds History

Golovkin has a record of 40-1-1 with 35 knockouts with the only blots in his record a draw and controversial loss against Canelo. Alvarez is 53-1-2 with 36 knockouts with his only loss coming at the hands of Floyd Mayweather Jr. The Mexican is a four-weight division champion and is only 29 years old while Golovkin, the former unified middleweight king, will already be 38 years of age when this fight happens in September.

During their first bout in September 2017, Golovkin was the slight -145 favorite over Alvarez who came back at +115. Many thought that Golovkin won that bout but the judges scored it a draw. Because of the controversial decision, the two decided to run things back one year later, the Kazakh god of war was once again the favorite at -160 while Canelo was the underdog again at +130. Alvarez won that fight by majority decision.

Immediately after that fight, there were calls for a grudge match but Alvarez chose to win another weight class by fighting Rocky Fielding for the super middleweight belt and then followed that up with a win over Daniel Jacobs.

Meanwhile, Golovkin kept himself busy by beating Steve Rolls then was taken to his limit by Sergiy Derevyanchenko last October. When it was announced that the two have agreed to meet for the third time, the sportsbooks installed Canelo as the favorite at -260 while Golovkin was initially pegged at +200.

This is the first time in his career that Golovkin is an underdog.

Canelo vs GGG 1

The first fight between these two went as expected. Golovkin was a destroyer who walked down every fighter he had ever faced. He had a knockout streak of 23 fights and was looking to add Alvarez to his list. Triple G pushed the pace and stalked Alvarez. He used a powerful jab to set up big right hands. On the other hand, Alvarez is a master boxer and a defensive genius. He used his footwork to avoid Golovkin’s big bombs and then utilized his excellent counter-punching skills to pile up points.

After 12 rounds, it appeared that Triple G landed the bigger shots and was able to do more damage than Alvarez although it was Canelo who fought better in the championship rounds. Golovkin was the busier fighter as he landed 218 out of 713 punches thrown while Alvarez was more accurate with 169 out of 505 punches landed.

  • One judge scored the fight 115-113 for Golovkin while the other saw it as a 114-114 draw.
  • The third judge had an outrageous scorecard of 118-110 for Alvarez which led to a majority draw decision.
  • Many observers, experts, and media outlets believed Golovkin won a close fight.
Moneyline Odds:

  • Alvarez (-260) | Golovkin (+200)
  • Odds from SportsBetting as of 03/24/2020

Canelo vs GGG 2

The two were supposed to rematch during the Cinco de Mayo Weekend of 2018 however, Alvarez was suspended for six months after testing positive for an illegal substance. The rematch was moved to September and was booked two days shy of one year from their first meeting. This time around, we saw the fighters exchange roles. Alvarez bulked up during training camp and he used his new size to become the aggressor in the fight. Canelo pressured Golovkin with combinations and backed him up with big right hands.

There were many instances when the two stood toe to toe in the middle of the ring to exchange pleasantries.

Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin 2

With both fighters bloodied after the end of the fight, the decision was left to the judges once again. This time around, the judges scored the fight as a split decision in favor of the Mexican. Two judges scored the bout 115-113 for Canelo while a third judge scored it as a 114-114 draw. Despite the decision, there were still camps that believed that Golovkin did enough to win or that the fight should’ve been a declared a draw. 10 out of 18 major media outlets had Golovkin winning while seven called it a draw and only one gave the fight to Alvarez. With another close and controversial fight, the fans asked for a grudge match.

The Grudge Match

It was announced earlier this month that the two fighters had agreed to fight for a third time, possibly in September. But with the coronavirus pandemic halting every major sporting event in the world, the date has not yet been penciled. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t happening.

Since their rematch, Alvarez has picked up three more wins including two by knockout. Canelo’s most impressive win during this period was his 11th round stoppage of Sergey Kovalev where he won the WBO light heavyweight championship. On the other hand, Golovkin made short work of Steve Rolls in his first bout since losing to Canelo. Triple G then had all sorts of trouble before winning a close decision against Sergiy Derevyanchenko. Golovkin won that fight with scores of 115-112, 114-113, and 114-113 for only the fifth decision win of his career.

Important:

The main issue in this third fight is Golovkin’s age. Triple G will be 38 when he meets Alvarez for the third time. Alvarez has looked in terrific shape in his last three fights and he looks to be hitting his peak.

Golovkin meanwhile, has looked a step slower since the first Canelo bout. In his last bout against Derevyanchenko, Golovkin took the most power punches he’s ever absorbed in a fight. With his reflexes slowly abandoning him, Golovkin is a sitting duck target for prime Canelo. I think Alvarez is going to win this fight. This will be the most definitive among the three fights and age will play a big part in that. I’m gonna have to go with Canelo Alvarez here, most probably by late stoppage. I think this third fight came a couple of years too late for Triple G.

ODDS-260

MY PICK:
Canelo Alvarez