Barely a week after their rematch, the talk of Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder completing their trilogy has begun.
The two heavyweights battled to a split draw in their first bout held last December 1, 2018. Fury outboxed Wilder for the majority of the fight but the Bronze Bomber dropped the Gypsy King twice. The result was controversial and the two fought in a rematch last weekend. In the second fight, we saw an entirely different scenario with Fury dominating the American and claiming a stoppage win inside seven rounds.
Fury Wins Rematch
Fury bulked up to 273 pounds for the rematch Wilder also added an extra 20 pounds for the second fight and this was perceived as an advantage for Wilder because Fury was supposed to lose his speed and quickness with the extra weight. There were also rumors than Fury had an ankle injury and there were even talks that Wilder was battling the flu in the days leading to the fight. All the insinuations were erased in round one when it was clear that Fury wanted to bully Wilder, tire him with dirty boxing, and keep him out of synch.
Fury eliminated Wilder’s vaunted punching power by taking the fight to Wilder and forcing the American knockout artist to fight backward. Fury closed the distance beautifully, and he applied every trick in the book to physically tire Wilder. In the second round, Fury landed a punch to the side of the head of Wilder which busted the latter’s ear. Wilder lost his coordination and balance after that knockdown and he was never the same again. Fury chopped him down in the next five rounds to earn the stoppage win.
Despite the loss, Wilder has a rematch clause that he can exercise within 30 days after the second fight. If the Bronze Bomber decided to enact that clause, a trilogy fight will happen between two of the current best heavyweight boxers on the planet. The odds for that third bout are already out in the top online sportsbooks, these are the lines:
- Fury (-215) | Wilder (+185)
- Odds from BetOnline as of 02/27/20
Who Wins the Third Fight?
Tyson Fury had a better strategy in the second fight. After what he saw in their first encounter, Fury knew that to beat Wilder, he had to neutralize the American’s insane punching power. So Fury bulked up to 273 pounds and armed with the confidence that he was able to beat the count twice after getting knocked down two times in their first fight, he pushed forward, ruggedly most of the time, to close the distance. Fury’s physical approach tired Wilder as early as round 2 and with the rounds passing by, the Bronze Bomber’s legs disappeared.
To beat Fury, Wilder must work on moving to his right to avoid getting grabbed and the American must fire his jab consistently to keep the British fighter off him. Point fighting isn’t Wilder’s style but if he keeps Fury at a distance, he can land his big punches. Remember he only needs one clean shot to put anyone to sleep. But if that leads to a long fight, there is no way Wilder can outbox and outpoint Fury so that may not work well.
I think that Wilder needs to take a risk in the third fight and let his hands go right from the opening bell. He will risk getting dropped but it’s his best shot at landing his bombs on Fury. The longer this fight goes, the more Fury has the advantage. Wilder couldn’t outbox old Luis Ortiz. There is no way in hell he can outbox Tyson Fury. That said, I’ll take Fury in the third fight as well. I don’t think Wilder can go 12 rounds. Fury has him figured out. Unless Wilder lands a Hail Mary, I’m picking Tyson Fury here.
Early Betting Props
Aside from the Moneyline odds, the early prop bets for Fury-Wilder 3 have gone up at BetOnline as of 2/27/20 and you might want to check them out as well:
Who Will Be the First to Get Knocked Down?
- Tyson Fury (-130)
- Deontay Wilder (-110)
There is no question that it is Deontay Wilder who has more punching power. Wilder also owns two knockdowns against Fury in their first bout but we saw Fury drop Wilder twice in the rematch. Fury may have inferior power but the Gypsy King is no “pillow puncher”. Wilder’s knockdowns are because of his power. Fury’s were a result of technique and strategy. When we talk about knockdowns, Wilder comes first to mind. However, he doesn’t have the skillset of Fury and Fury has him figured out. I don’t think Deontay can grow skills overnight. I think Wilder gets dropped first.
Prediction: Deontay Wilder
Who Will Be the First to Bleed?
- Tyson Fury (-130)
- Deontay Wilder (-110)
Okay so we saw Wilder bleed badly in the rematch and that began in the second round when Fury landed to the side of the ear and that was the punch that cost Wilder the fight in my opinion. But we also saw Fury bleed badly against Otto Wallin so this one should be very even. However, given the strategy that Fury employed in the rematch, I think that the Briton has the size, strength, and smarts to wrestle Wilder and tire the American. Fury out-landed Wilder badly in both fights and the fighter with the more punches landed has the more chance to inflict damage.
Prediction: Tyson Fury
Fury vs Wilder III – Total Rounds
- Over 9.5 (-120)
- Under 9.5 (-120)
You can argue that Wilder will be back with a vengeance but in my book, I don’t think there is more than Wilder can offer. The Bronze Bomber is a puncher and a knockout artist and he has relied on his punching power to win most of his fights. Wilder has gone past round seven just three times in 44 fights. Fury has gone past 8 rounds in six out of his last eight fights but given how he manhandled Wilder in their rematch, I think this will not go past seven rounds, either way. It’s either Wilder lands a big one early or Fury tires him again and stops the Bronze Bomber in the middle rounds.
Prediction: Under 9.5
Bonus: Tyson Fury to Fight Anthony Joshua in 2020?
- Yes (+200)
- No (-260)
Deontay Wilder has a rematch clause and he has already expressed his intention to exercise it. With the way he lost, I think Wilder wants to repair his image badly and he wants to do it as soon as he can. Some think that Wilder needs to regroup but given his skills, there is nothing more he can offer so he might as well go for the jugular. I agree that Joshua is the bigger money fight here and there are talks that Wilder may be offered money to step aside. A Fury vs Joshua bout will produce the first undisputed heavyweight champion since Lennox Lewis is 2000. I’m not sure about that happening in 2020 though. I think that the promoters strike when the iron is still hot. I know that Fury may fight three times this year. But the Gypsy King has fought just twice in 2014, 2015, and 2019. I think two high-profile fights in a year will be enough. The ball is in the hands of Wilder. He exercises the clause and gets the rematch. AJ gets his shot next year.