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Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans NFL Betting Odds and Pick

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The Indianapolis Colts head to Texas on Thursday to face the Houston Texans in an all-important AFC South Division showdown that has playoff implications.

The Colts and Texans are currently locked in first place in the AFC South with their 6-4 records. Indianapolis defeated Houston 30-23 last October 20th so a win on Thursday will not only give them the temporary lead in the division but also the tie-breaker against the Texans, which essentially gives them a two-game lead over Houston. The Colts head to this contest after a big win over the Jaguars while the Texans lost to the Ravens in their last assignment. Houston is a modest NFL betting favorite in this contest.

Having Brissett Back

The Indianapolis Colts suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of the Miami Dolphins two weeks ago but the Colts snapped their two-game losing streak last week by defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars last week with starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett returning from an injury.

Brissett has managed well for the Colts. Indianapolis is 6-1 SU with him as the starter and he has thrown for a total of 1,797 passing yards with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. Marlon Mack ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing with 862 yards and four touchdowns but he suffered a broken hand in their last game against the Jaguars and is out indefinitely.

The Colts rank 28th in the NFL in passing at 202.7 yards per game. Indianapolis is 4th on the ground with an average of 141.1 rushing yards per contest and they are 16th in scoring at 22.7 points per game. The Colts are allowing their opponents to score 20.6 points per game this season.

Moneyline Odds:

  • Colts (+170) | Texans (-195)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 11/20/19

Playing Close Games

The Houston Texans have been the beneficiaries of the Colts’ recent struggles. Houston took a share of the AFC South lead after Indianapolis suffered back to back losses to Pittsburgh and Miami. A win here for the Texans would put them on top of the division and split their season series with the Colts.

The Texans have played in close games this season with six out of their eight games this season decided by seven points or fewer. It wasn’t that case in their last assignment. In their last game before taking a bye last week, the Texans scored a big 26-3 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Houston is 14th in the league in passing at 239.5 yards per game this season. They are the 5th best rushing team in the NFL at 140.7 yards per contest. The Texans are ranked 10th overall in scoring at 24.5 points per game and they are giving up an average of 23.2 points per game this season.

Who Wins?

Indianapolis is 14-6 SU in their last 20 games played. The Colts are 2-2 SU in their four road games played this season and 13-6 SU in their last 19 games played against the AFC Conference. Houston is 6-3 SU in their last nine games played and 3-1 SU in four home games played this season. The Texans are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games against the AFC Conference and 4-1 SU in their last five November games. Head to head, the Colts are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Texans.

The Colts have Jacoby Brissett back but they will be short-handed again on Thursday night. Marlon Mack is a huge part of what the Colts do and without him, they will be missing 61% of their rushing attack and around 25% of their total offensive production. Indianapolis will still be without top receiver T.Y. Hilton who is out with a calf injury.

Houston’s offensive line failed Deshaun Watson against the Ravens as the quarterback got hit 10 times and sacked seven times by the Baltimore pass rush. However, Watson is likely going to catch a break here versus a Colts defense that is only forcing 2.5 sacks per game this season.

The Colts will be without their top air and ground options on Thursday and the Texans are looking at a quick bounce-back game after their loss to the Ravens. Indianapolis isn’t as good as Baltimore and I think the Texans are going to win a close and entertaining game at home.

ODDS-195

MY PICK:
Houston Texans

Other Bets to Make

The Colts are 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 games played and 2-1-1 ATS in four road games played this season. Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in their last six games played against the AFC South Division. The Texans are 2-3 ATS in their last five games played and 1-3 ATS in four home games played this season. Houston is 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games against the AFC South Division. Head to head, the Colts are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Texans. Indianapolis is 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven road games against Houston.

Spread Odds:

  • Colts +3.5 (-105) | Texans -3.5 (-115)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 11/20/19

The Colts have outscored the Texans by an average of 2.8 points per game in their last 10 head to head games and by 8.0 points per game in their most recent three meetings. Marlon Mack’s absence leaves a huge void in the Indianapolis offense. The Texans’ defense was Top 10 in the league before they faced Baltimore so I expect them to bounce back here.

ODDS-115

MY PICK:
Texans -3.5

The total has gone over in six out of the last 10 games played by the Colts. The under is 8-3 in the last 11 November games played by Indianapolis. The total has gone under in eight out of the last 12 games played by the Texans. Houston has seen the total go under in seven out of their last eight home games. Head to head, the total has gone under in six out of the last 10 games between these two teams.

Over/Under Odds:

  • Over 45 (-110) | Under 45 (-110)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 11/20/19

These teams have combined to score an average of 42.7 points per game in their last 10 meetings and 42.0 points per game in their most recent three encounters. The under is 5-2 in the last seven head to head meetings between these two teams with an average score of 43.5 points per game. The Colts are missing vital offensive cogs and won’t be able to help the Texans breach the total.

ODDS-110

MY PICK:
Under 45