How do you define “success” when gambling at a sportsbook?
Suppose a guy really, really wants to beat the bookie, and dives into fanatical research on everything from March Madness to the English Premier League. He “succeeds,” winning 58% of his bets including some underdog moneylines and parlays, and makes a few hundred bucks a week at the book.
Problem is, the huge time-commitment works to the detriment to his job performance. He winds up taking a demotion and loses the weekly income he gained from the markets.
Then he says, “I know what to do. I’ll just gamble on my favorite teams that I’m already gonna watch anyway. Then I can do better at work, and still bet and win!”
Nope. Lulled to sleep against recognizing his own disadvantage when betting with alma mater-colored glasses, he loses another several hundred bucks on the hometown heroes.
Finally he pursues a “scientific” and secretive gambling system through some handy identity-masking work and an open-source exchange market in the U.K. He learns from an old-timer that “laying” (or betting an anything-but outcome) every road favorite in every Italian club soccer match from now until the end of time will lead to 55% success. So he does it, and he makes his money back.
Except the games kick-off at 5 in the morning, he’s losing sleep from the Android alerts, and our protagonist’s fate becomes that of a file clerk on a tiny salary instead of a cheering sports fan.
Whatever you call that, it isn’t success.
A successful betting system is one that promises the gambler a real sporting interest and a minimal time-commitment. Gamblers must be allowed to have fun. Individual bets are often more fun than simply referring to a chart.
But the perils of betting daily on MLB ballgames turn that principle on its head. It’s not so fun to go through the mental fatigue of trying to find outlier-moneylines on 162 games in a row – or even more if you like to double-up and parlay your baseball betting action.
Strong, proven systems for Major League Baseball allow the gambler to feel confident, and kick back and relax while enjoying a relaxing sport.
Here’s a quick quintet of 5 MLB betting systems that could help raise your stake into the stratosphere this summer…along with those towering home-run shots by Christian Yelich and Mike Trout.
5 MLB Betting Systems – An Overview
Picking Against Losing Clubs After a Win
The MLB season is full of ups and downs, but clubs with the better rosters will usually find a way to achieve the most consistency. Lineups featuring less experienced, sub-par talent will find it more difficult to generate enough momentum to build a lengthy winning streak. MLB bettors can rely on bad teams not to have back-to-back stellar performances.
W-L records in April and May may not be indicative of a ballclub’s likelihood to compete in October.
To track the sportsbook value (or lack thereof) of bad teams, establish a winning percentage threshold (usually lower than .400) that each club cannot eclipse. Once a targeted losing club soars above the W-L percentage maximum, it is time to start betting against them.
Clubs struggling to build momentum will occasionally have days where the bats connect. But the same success rarely comes in the next outing. Pick favorites against poor teams that have flown too close to the Sun.
Handicappers have tracked this technique with sample-sizes of 1000s of ballgames, and it has a consistent track record of keeping bettors above water throughout the MLB season.
Underdogs Coming Off a Low-Scoring Win
Sometimes an underdog MLB club coming off a big win is on the cusp of a rare winning streak. But those lucky ‘dogs who pull off an upset by swinging for the fences and scoring a grand number of runs in 9 innings often have a tougher time producing the same results.
Good pitching and defense can be consistently relied-upon more than electric scoring binges. An underdog capable of grinding to the finish in a low-scoring affair is demonstrating a more adept formula with which to prevail again the next outing.
Some “system” bettors maintain the philosophy of sticking with teams who have won the previous day, whether they’re underdogs on the moneyline or not. This more-specific betting system instructs the gambler to rely on defensive juggernauts with a strong bullpen. Managers and clubs who love winning 1-0 or 2-1 duels are the ones you are looking to buy-in on.
An underdog that can stifle the most potent hitting attacks in the league always has a chance to come out on top. The ballgame can come down to a few key plays.
The success % of this strategy is often a mere 50-50 in the W-L column but can produce big winnings depending on the plus-payout lines for each game to which the system is applied.
Wind Blowing into the Stadium
Unless a club’s ballpark has a retractable roof to eliminate any unfavorable conditions, windy weather can make a huge difference in a ballgame’s outcome. Depending on the breeze’s strength and vector, it can have a significant impact on the number of runs scored in a contest.
If the wind is blowing out of the stadium, then the chances of a fly ball turning into a home run skyrocket. The same holds true for the opposite scenario. A fierce gust blowing into the stadium can turn a sure homer into an out. That can drastically change the final score.
An easy strategy to apply is to bet the Under for any game that is being played outdoors and sees a ferocious wind blowing inwards from the outfield. Despite the gambling public and bookmakers doing their best to adjust to the weather forecasts, the constant allure of “over” betting (and cheering for offense and scoring) keeps the O/U lines more stable than they ought to be when the wind is coming in a favorable direction for hurlers on the mound.
Make sure you don’t place an Under bet based on wind that can’t affect the outcome. 6 Major League teams have retractable roofs to utilize for home games in blustery weather.
Betting on Divisional Underdogs
Division rivalries can wake talented clubs up from a slumber.
For instance, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have each gotten off to slow starts in 2019, The Bronx Bombers only scored 6 combined runs in 2 previous games against the Chicago White Sox before welcoming blood-rival Boston for a series in the Bronx.
Rise and shine – the Yanks scored 13 runs and went 2-0 in the short meeting.
Regardless of W/L records, divisional MLB games have a special meaning. Disdain for the club in the opposing dugout can lift an underdog to a huge win over a divisional foe. Contests against familiar rivals make up roughly half of every Major League team’s schedule. Unless the underdog is a terrible team that doesn’t show up to play against anyone, the game is often a toss-up…in spite of any Vegas odds.
Underdogs playing a hated division rival after a defeat in the series often turn things around the next day. Clubs hovering around the .500 mark or slightly below have shown to have a winning record against the favorite following such a home defeat. Maybe the embarrassment of losing to an arch-rival at home in consecutive games is just too much to bear?
Wise system-bettors know to look for the “+” moneyline in those circumstances. It’s not fancy, and it’s an old technique. But it works.
Bet on Clubs to Avoid a Series Sweep
The strategy of our final MLB betting system involves tracking series throughout the league and identifying the clubs on the verge of being swept.
Whether an underdog or favorite, the team riding the brief losing streak will be the bettor’s choice.
The W-L records, overall trends of both teams, injuries, and other vital factors are not considered during the series finale. In other words, the sweep-avoidance handicapping system values the pride of ballplayers more than any numerical analysis.
This system is best-utilized in unique contests such as a club threatening to sweep a division rival, or a team scrambling for playoff position.
But don’t forget to look at lineups early and late in the year. The favored team – if in a comfortable position in the W/L standings – may choose to rest a few players or use a “spot” starter from the bullpen on the mound to rest a 5-man rotation of aces.
MLB gambling systems are a great shortcut to making successful picks on the regular. Remember, though, that ballgames are won by the players and managers…not numbers, stats, or Vegas trends.